we had that squeeze, now what ?

16 jul 2018

The squeeze i mentioned a few days ago finally happened.

Let's start with indicators :

Stochastic, have form a lower high, this suggest right now is a bad entry, it's the most negative indicator to look at right now
RSI hasn't yet, it's overbought, but it has room to go, i'd like to see it reset toward the blue arrow before considering an entry, but it has room for an extra move upward before doing so
Macd is the most promising, we have made an higher high (than the two peak with black arrow), this doesn't hint toward a corrective move at all, it also confirm the bullish divergence.

On an EW basis, this could be a wave B or a wave i of 3, we do see an impulse structure, but it's incomplete, a last move up would confirm this as an impulse and would complete this as i of 3.
In the wave B scenario, price should turn now, and can go as low as 5900

The last inverted HNS that yield successfully (after feb low), had a pullback toward fib 0.5 of the right shoulder before breaking the neckline
This would form a cup and handle an other bullish sign

To resume, we are now at fib 0.7 of the move down, this is make or take situation.
My favorite scenario would see a brief move toward the neckline and get rejected down to the blue box, before a second and successful attempt
Second bullish scenario would see an immediate pullback to the blue box, follow by a break of the neckline
Bearish scenario would see a break and close below the 6260-6300 level on H4 or better D1

Happy trading !

17 jul 2018

Nota

lazzy update :
Stochastic managed to make a higher high, that mean there is room for one more touch higher or a double top, while printing a lower high on the indicator
On smaller TF macd is printing lower high
I think price should complete the DT in a similar fashion we saw on the left.

In term of the following correction, i'm still looking at the blue box.
If this is wave i/ii, and previous high/low was 1/2, we could see similar target near fib 0.7.
If we have a cup and handle formation fib 0.5 is the ideal target.

17 jul 2018

Nota

so far we are following my 1 scenario pretty well
Playing devil's advocate, here is the bearish scenario to be aware of :

Some of the difference :
in both instances macd and rsi printed a lower high
At the moment we have a higher high on RSI and MACD (which could be a hidden bearish divergence)
We also have a rounded bottom instead of 2 sharp V

17 jul 2018

Nota

horizontal black line should be confirmed as support from now on
Target 1 and 2 for now

18 jul 2018

Nota

first target hit

macd read on H2 hint at this beeing subwave iii of 3.
There should be one more higher high in price but lower high on macd (on smaller TF M30 to H2) in order to complete wave 3
wave iii was actually short and almost equal wave i, that would hint at a shallow correction

Ideally i'd want to see a retest of the neckline at 6800, but i doubt it will happen
My favorite scenario would see a slower move down for a few day toward the fib 0.6-0.3 area.
The last one, with RSI and stoch hovering in overbought, i think it's a possibility we also don't even see much more of a correction before making a next leg up

The 1.6 extension of wave 1 is located near my second target at 7700
The 2.6 is located in the low 8000, those would be final target for wave 3
I do have a last target at 8500, but i doubt this will be reach now

20 jul 2018

Nota

doesn't look good

could go as low as 6600 but my prefer target is still the same as before

21 jul 2018

Nota

yesterday we almost touched fib 0.618
right now all indicators are hovering under overbought.
I'd want to think we'll have one more low, there was no divergence or sign of reversal at yesterday's low, BUT we had a similar situation right before the start of wave iii, and that indicate caution when expecting lower price
If we break above current level and rising TL, we probably won't see a lower low for wave iv and wave v target will be in play

23 jul 2018

Nota

we have now reached my target for wave v
timing is perfect with wave 1 thru 3 = 4 and 5

made an higher on daily RSI
made a higher high on daily macd

we are near fib 1.618 of wave 1
price could turn here but...

23 jul 2018

Nota

but...
on smaller TF we have a triangle, and there is clearly one more subwave left
we also made a higher high on macd and RSI
this is subwave (iii) of v of 3
target is at 8100

we just had a macd crossover on H4 near the median, this is what to look at to make sure 8100 is the top of this move.
Next leg up cannot make a higher on there

23 jul 2018

Nota

the alternative scenario is kind of crazy...
It would have the previous move 7600 as a wave i of 3
current PA to 8700 as wave iii of 3
wave iv arround 8100
and wave v if 3 near 9600
we would be well past fib 2.618 of wave 1 tho
we would need the move to 8700 to print a higher on macd and rsi on both daily and H4

the only reason i am mentioning it, is because of ETH, it''s stuck in a wave i-ii structure, and look like it has only started wave iii of 3
So does most alts
it would be assuming they are on the same cycle as BTC which isn't necessary the case since they made a lower low while btc double bottom in june

24 jul 2018

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

on m15 i can see one last triangle with target near my final target at 8500
bearish divergence on all three indicators
extended fifth sub wave
we could see a double top from here even if triangle breaks up

personally i'll be using a narrow trailling stop take profit from here to ride this last move with minimum risks