short opportunity

1 ago 2018

bitcoin is still volatile and making big moves, many think that we are in the beginning of a new bullish cycle as they always do when we rally a few thousand. They are not without reasonable belief as the weekly mac D shows a bullish cross incoming for the first time in a while and oversold conditions on the 4 hr and lower time frames which we should be bouncing back from. Nevertheless I remain bearish for the time being, and while I don't know if we will make a new low I do think we have a high chance of returning to the high 6ks and there is money to be made shorting mid to high 7ks. Daily chart mac D shows a bearish cross about to ensue so we can expect that to happen before the effect of the weekly bullish cross comes. Usually momentum indicators show divergence from price before price action follows meaning the weekly bullish cross may not take effect for a few weeks even though it may look eminent. Momentum is important but the main concern is price action, we see shorts being loaded up in the BTCUSDSHORTS table as well as a lower high on bitcoin. With the price action and daily momentum indicators I assume the most likely path is down for the time being. Confirmation would come in the form of a price drop to the first green box which would form a head and shoulder pattern, less bullish conviction down there and if we see negative momentum in the consolidation shorts should start to load up. The next high volume node on the price volume indicator is the high to mid 6ks which I believe bearish momentum will be able to lead us to and possibly lower.

So to play this properly stay out for now and if we fall wait for signs of momentum dropping in a consolidation around the green box or a straight break of the consolidation price zone. After that i would accumulate shorts. Hold till the next level of interest and gauge momentum at that level. positive momentum? dump shorts wait for a higher low and go long, negative momentum? hold. too easy right. Alternatively we could start to see buying around these current levels here but I see that as the more unlikely route given we have just started to see the downward trend begin but if you follow the advice given here you won't be in! Good luck.

4 ago 2018

Nota

panning out perfectly consolidation was even shorter than expected and the drop came quick, bullish sentiment down. now we are on a short stop before most likely heading to the consolidation zone, there is some small bullish divergence and we are oversold on lower time frames so i expect a little correction or sideways movement for a bit before we fall to an area of greater interest.