BTC/USD: Short Term Bullish Breakout Analysis

1 oct 2020

In this post, I'll be providing my own technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) using Elliott Wave counts, Fibonacci retracements, and insights provided by indicators.

Analysis
- To begin with, we can see that Bitcoin is consolidating within a triangle pattern
- We can count an Elliott Triangle Wave (ABCDE) within the pattern
- While a textbook wave count would suggest Wave E down to 10.3k, where the trend line support and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support converge, that is not always necessarily the case
- There are many cases in which the final wave doesn't fully test the support before breaking out
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a similar pattern in which it has been creating higher lows and lower highs
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a golden cross
- A break and close above the trend line resistance and 0.236 would provide confirmation to retest 11k regions

Conclusion
Technicals for Bitcoin demonstrate signs of cautious bullishness. While there is room for a potential drop, it seems that laddering positions for spot btc would be the most prudent for the time being.

Don't predict the market. The future is all about preparation, not prediction. Take it by levels, and play by probabilities.
-Michael Wang-

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