edutradinguru

BTC - IS THE FUTURES TAKING THE LEAD ? PART II

CME:BTC1!   Futuros de bitcoin del CME
Hi,

Today I will show:
- how there is a mismatch between key indicators between the BTC spot and futures prices.
- the rational behind this.
- how it can be very useful to rely on the futures data rather than the spot price on retail exchanges.

In this uncertainty phase, with many confluences of levels, it is very tought to make reasonable bets, meaning with a better than a 50/50 outcome. (I will make an update shortly about the levels to monitor as of now).
Hence I wanna bring your attention to this interesting observation. Now btc price already broke the 100daily MA and is finding what is for many an unexplucable resistance at to reach the 8000 level, where the 200 MA is.
Now, look at the BTC1! chart. Here is the answer. The price hit the 100 MA but it is still BELOW. Look how the 200MA here is significatly above the 8000 level as in the spot chart: the level is 8660. Also, if you do a naked comparison between the two charts you will notice that the March behaviour was better described inthe futuresone, with the futures prices using the 100 and 200 MA to bounce and drop. This did not happen in thespot chart. This is perfectly understandable as the futures price exclude weekend data, which are of course not that relevant. Indicators here arecalculated on less noisy data. Also, with the news of a huge fund entering the btc market and the great interest around bitcoin in 2020 as a make-it-or-break-it year, a lot of money entered the futures market (as you can see by the volumes and open interest position increasing).

I will use these levels here to determine my next entry, SL and TP.


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