Long term view on BTC
Actualizado
I’m gonna try to make this as short as possible since there is enough detail in the chart already and i don’t want to bore you with needless sentences.
Basically this is my long term view for BTC. I put alot of thought into it before posting this idea as there are so many perspectives fundamentally and technically that need to be taken into consideration when making such a prediction and/or analysis but at the end of the day it all comes down to probabilities, so please do not take this as financial advice in any way shape or form and do your own research before taking a trade.
Okay let’s dive right into it. In my previous idea I covered why I think we are going to 5.2k and nothing has changed for me yet. I see a high probability of hitting the 5 - 5.2k area during April (possibly in the first 2 weeks of April) then making another leg down to the 2 - 2.5k zone completing the intermediate wave 5 of the primary A wave of the huge ABC correction which I think we are currently in since the 2017 ATH.
I try to think more from the market makers (whales) perspective when doing TA. Whales have been and will continue to make huge profits from constantly faking the shit out of average traders leading them into FOMO when price is going up, FUD when price is going down, then just pumping and dumping on them when unexpected.
When you look at it from that perspective, there are quite a lot of people who currently think that 3.1k was the bottom, so why not pump to 5.2k, maybe even go above to 5.5 or even 6k , make’em FOMO and think the bottom was really in, then take a huge dump on them all the way down to 2k, get’em confused, scoop it all back up and make a huge bull trap to the 9k area completing wave B of the ABC correction and finally DUMP down to the 1.3 to 1k area (maybe even wick below 1k to 900$ and some change) to complete wave C, shake out all the week hands, the useless shit coins, complete the Despair phase of the market cycle and wave 7 of Hyperwave.
I think the bottom will be in at that point, people will be confused out of their minds and the disbelief phase will begin. I do not think that BTC will remain at or under the 1k level.
Now if you decided to read this first and look at the chart later, then at this point it may sound like I’m making this stuff up with no TA to really back it up, so I’d like mention just one more point that I didn’t include in the chart because it was getting too cluttered and then wrap it up and leave you with the chart.
The wave B of the ABC correction in the bear market of 2014 completed at the 0.382 Fib retracement from bottom of wave A. With the similarity of our current bear market to 2014 and assuming that history may rhyme, if we go down to 2k to complete wave A, then the 0.382 fib retracement from wave A sits at the 9k level. But with the FOMO and momentum at that level which I believe will be insane, I think it is possible that the price could go up to as high as 10k (psychological target, round number) or maybe even higher who knows.
Don’t forget that trading is a game of probabilities and nobody knows for certain what the market’s next move will be, so if the market proves you wrong no need to get upset. Just simply zoom out and reevaluate.
Man, I thought this was gonna be short :)
Basically this is my long term view for BTC. I put alot of thought into it before posting this idea as there are so many perspectives fundamentally and technically that need to be taken into consideration when making such a prediction and/or analysis but at the end of the day it all comes down to probabilities, so please do not take this as financial advice in any way shape or form and do your own research before taking a trade.
Okay let’s dive right into it. In my previous idea I covered why I think we are going to 5.2k and nothing has changed for me yet. I see a high probability of hitting the 5 - 5.2k area during April (possibly in the first 2 weeks of April) then making another leg down to the 2 - 2.5k zone completing the intermediate wave 5 of the primary A wave of the huge ABC correction which I think we are currently in since the 2017 ATH.
I try to think more from the market makers (whales) perspective when doing TA. Whales have been and will continue to make huge profits from constantly faking the shit out of average traders leading them into FOMO when price is going up, FUD when price is going down, then just pumping and dumping on them when unexpected.
When you look at it from that perspective, there are quite a lot of people who currently think that 3.1k was the bottom, so why not pump to 5.2k, maybe even go above to 5.5 or even 6k , make’em FOMO and think the bottom was really in, then take a huge dump on them all the way down to 2k, get’em confused, scoop it all back up and make a huge bull trap to the 9k area completing wave B of the ABC correction and finally DUMP down to the 1.3 to 1k area (maybe even wick below 1k to 900$ and some change) to complete wave C, shake out all the week hands, the useless shit coins, complete the Despair phase of the market cycle and wave 7 of Hyperwave.
I think the bottom will be in at that point, people will be confused out of their minds and the disbelief phase will begin. I do not think that BTC will remain at or under the 1k level.
Now if you decided to read this first and look at the chart later, then at this point it may sound like I’m making this stuff up with no TA to really back it up, so I’d like mention just one more point that I didn’t include in the chart because it was getting too cluttered and then wrap it up and leave you with the chart.
The wave B of the ABC correction in the bear market of 2014 completed at the 0.382 Fib retracement from bottom of wave A. With the similarity of our current bear market to 2014 and assuming that history may rhyme, if we go down to 2k to complete wave A, then the 0.382 fib retracement from wave A sits at the 9k level. But with the FOMO and momentum at that level which I believe will be insane, I think it is possible that the price could go up to as high as 10k (psychological target, round number) or maybe even higher who knows.
Don’t forget that trading is a game of probabilities and nobody knows for certain what the market’s next move will be, so if the market proves you wrong no need to get upset. Just simply zoom out and reevaluate.
Man, I thought this was gonna be short :)
Nota
Going as predicted so far...Let's see what happens.
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