AUD/USD swing trade setup

27 jun

This AUD/USD pair could completed its correction already

Wave (1) = diagonal
Wave (2) = complex correction W-X-Y (expanded triangle)
Wave 1-2 (expanded flat completed last night 26/6/2024) of 3



If this wave count is valid, possible short term target (days-weeks) are
1) 0.68
2) 0.694


Price should not go lower than 0.664
If it goes lower than 0.658 -> this idea will be invalidated

Looking at DXY, this bullish idea may be possible

27 jun

Nota

I think the small wave 2 is completed. On the way to first target around 0.680

28 jun

Nota

Alright, so last night got stopped out.
Maybe this is most likely pattern/wave count here
with wave X is a complex combination.
Now this pair is likely forming its wave Y as a corrective pattern.

Could be an expanded flat. wave 2 waves remaining
or just a-b-c that will conclude around the 0.618 fib

If you want to trade breakout, wait until price break above 0.69

28 jun

Nota

If price go above 0.668, i think that is our confirmation
However, we have Core PCE today, be prepared for increased volatility.

Invalidation point remains the same at <0.658
Bullish confirmation at 0.69

1 jul

Nota

With DXY falling at the open this week, i think this support bullish scenario of all risk asset

1 jul

Nota

Shouldn't come below 0.663 now

on the way to first target around yellow channel

3 jul

Nota

Alright!

3 jul

Nota

Trade is working nicely!

5 jul

Nota

I'm not sure if we will see a small correction since this looks like first 5 wave is completed.

Be careful if you want to add to long position here



Look at DXY, I think it almost complete its 5 wave down, probably we will see it tonight.

11 jul

Nota

Price hit 1st target

I expect the trend to continue

15 jul

Nota

I think the wave 4 is a triangle, targeting 0.68350
with SL of 0.677