Aussie Shows Short-term Bullish Formation Ahead of RBA

5 jun 2023

Stocks, USD and US yields are again moving in the same direction, so we may expect that one should give up this week. On overlay chart of XXX/USd pairs, we can Aussie with some impressive run from last week that occurred, before US yields stabilized, and the reason for the relatively strong AUD was the release of Australian inflation figures that came out worse than expected, 6.8%, but still below 7% from previous reading. So there is a chance that RBA will be more hawkish this week, meaning that Aussie can stay in intraday uptrend, which certainly can be the case if we consider that recovery from the low was sharp and looks like an impulse, so more gains can be seen after a-b-c retracement. Traders will have a close eye on this one for potential traders going into the RBA rate decision. We see nice support at 0.6560, while upward projection is at 0.6675-0,67, This view is unchanged while price is above 0.6459.

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6 jun 2023

Nota

Move of the Asian session was Aussie, as we warned yesterday, because of RBA rate decision. AUD is up across the board after another rate hike by CB. They said that this hike will provide greater confidence that inflation would return to the target. More importantly, they added that some further tightening may be required. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see nice push higher, but ideally, that's still fifth wave of the first big impulse so possibly more gains after a pullback. Next pullback can be an opportunity for longs.