Keep eyes on the harmonic Gartley formation
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move reclaimed more than 60% of the month’s losses, drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
April currently trades more than 3% in the green. With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
In parallel with the RSI indicator toppling its 50.00 value, currently closing in on 60.00, AUD/USD registered its fifth successive daily gain Friday. Notably, price has engaged the upper boundary of a demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, shifting focus to a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6398, followed by a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449 and trendline resistance (0.7031).
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
The H4 timeframe remains a somewhat busy chart at the moment, highlighting hard-wearing resistance between 0.6433/0.6338.
Converging with 0.6433/0.6338 we have a harmonic Gartley formation, with a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433. In addition, a local ABCD approach is seen (orange) terminating at around a 161.8% Fib ext. level drawn from 0.6338. Also of note is a 161.8% Fib ext. level coming in at 0.6420.
H1 timeframe:
Lifted by a decline in the USD, Thursday concluded testing channel resistance (0.6207) and the 0.6350 base, which, as you can see, remained in play throughout Friday’s holiday-thinned session.
While the RSI indicator makes its way south of overbought territory, the noncommittal tone from sellers at the moment shifts focus to possible upside this week, with the 0.64 handle in view, followed by supply at 0.6461/0.6435. Nevertheless, if we do make a play for lower levels, 0.63 offers feasible support, as does channel support from 0.5991.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term:
Price action on the monthly timeframe displays scope to approach supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Daily movement also penetrated the upper boundary of a demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, though faces notable Fib resistance around 0.6449/0.6398.
Shorter-term:
Although monthly and daily price threaten higher moves, H4 action brings reasonably stacked resistance to the table. Therefore, a dip lower is still not out of the question this week, with sellers perhaps eyeing 0.63 as an initial target.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move reclaimed more than 60% of the month’s losses, drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
April currently trades more than 3% in the green. With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
In parallel with the RSI indicator toppling its 50.00 value, currently closing in on 60.00, AUD/USD registered its fifth successive daily gain Friday. Notably, price has engaged the upper boundary of a demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, shifting focus to a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6398, followed by a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449 and trendline resistance (0.7031).
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
The H4 timeframe remains a somewhat busy chart at the moment, highlighting hard-wearing resistance between 0.6433/0.6338.
Converging with 0.6433/0.6338 we have a harmonic Gartley formation, with a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433. In addition, a local ABCD approach is seen (orange) terminating at around a 161.8% Fib ext. level drawn from 0.6338. Also of note is a 161.8% Fib ext. level coming in at 0.6420.
H1 timeframe:
Lifted by a decline in the USD, Thursday concluded testing channel resistance (0.6207) and the 0.6350 base, which, as you can see, remained in play throughout Friday’s holiday-thinned session.
While the RSI indicator makes its way south of overbought territory, the noncommittal tone from sellers at the moment shifts focus to possible upside this week, with the 0.64 handle in view, followed by supply at 0.6461/0.6435. Nevertheless, if we do make a play for lower levels, 0.63 offers feasible support, as does channel support from 0.5991.
Structures of Interest:
Longer term:
Price action on the monthly timeframe displays scope to approach supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Daily movement also penetrated the upper boundary of a demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, though faces notable Fib resistance around 0.6449/0.6398.
Shorter-term:
Although monthly and daily price threaten higher moves, H4 action brings reasonably stacked resistance to the table. Therefore, a dip lower is still not out of the question this week, with sellers perhaps eyeing 0.63 as an initial target.
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