AUDNZD: Holding - Trading Life in Fundamentals

25 jul 2016

This is not what I was hoping for. I wanted price to fall down to 1.0584, but it didn't; instead, the market hit this trendline and is reacting. So, I'll take what the market gives me with a small stop.

The CPI is coming out for the Australian economy and I normally do not predict it, but I am in a position in AUDNZD and AUDUSD, so I am taking a look at it now with not such great confidence like other data that I predict. The CPI at this stage is tricky because of all the mixed signals that I have seen so far from housing. "Recent data suggest overall growth is continuing..." (rba.gov.au/media-releases/2016/mr-16-16.html). One of the things that I am monitoring is business confidence, and this came out very well; a 6 versus, previously, a 3.

While, this does not help out in predicting the CPI that I normally can do with other countries, the consensus is expecting a positive result than before. If not, then I will get stopped out, and the market will fall to my limit orders around 1.0582.

So...I will hold it...preparing to accept a loss.


TECHNICALLY, it has bounced off of a trendline. I am in...waiting for the loss to happen and lmit order to be filled down below.

25 jul 2016

Nota

I forgot to mention that commodities have not fallen like they were back in 2014 and 2015. The way they are moving suggests and increase in the price index of some goods, which can boast the CPI of New Zealand. I will see the affect on the Aussie....watching and waiting.