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Amjad_S
19 de Ago. de 2023 11:06

Guassian Distribution Forecast [prediction intervals] 

Bitcoin / US DollarEightcap

Descripción

The Indicator

The Indicator combines volatility and frequency distributions to forecast an area of possible price expansion with an approximate confidence interval / level and level of significance (significance level).

The Script Formula



Additional comments

To alter the models forecasting precision to reflect a given confidence interval, e.g the 90% confidence level (C.L.), use the 1.64 multiplier (toggle value in "Standard normal distribution sd" setting), to use a specific C.L., e.g. the 85th percentile either search for this on google, or calculate it yourself using a Standard Normal Distribution Probability table. Additionaly volatility may be changed by toggling the lookback period setting, this can be thought of as widening the distribution tails.

The look forward parameter is currently fixed at 20, this is because it does not currently work correctly with higher integers, I will try resolve this problem and any other bugs as soon as possible
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