capriole_charles

Charles Recession Watch

The “Recession Watch” indicator tracks 7 key economic metrics which have historically preceded US recessions. It provides a real-time indication of incoming recession risk.
This indicator gives a picture of when risk is increasing, and therefore when you might want to start taking some money out of risky assets.

All of the last seven recessions were preceded by a risk score of 3 or higher. Six of them were preceded by a risk score of 4 or higher. Unfortunately data prior to 1965 was inconsistent and prior recessions could not be considered.

Based on the indicator hit rate at successfully flagging recessions over the last 50 years, risk scores have the following approximate probabilities of recession:
- 0-1: Low
- 2: 25% within next 18 months
- 3: 30% within next 12 months
- 4-7: 50% within next 12 months

Note that a score of 3 is not necessarily a cause for panic. After all, there are substantial rewards to be had in the lead up to recessions (averaging 19% following yield curve inversion). For the brave, staying invested until the score jumps to 4+, or until the S&P500 drops below the 200day MA, will likely yield the best returns.

Notes on use:
- use MONTHLY time period only (the economic metrics are reported monthly)
- If you want to view the risk Score (1-7) you need to set your chart axis to "Logarithmic"

Enjoy and good luck!
Eliminar de Scripts favoritos. Añadir a Scripts favoritos.
👑 Beat Bitcoin with premium TradingView algos --> http://www.capriole.io/indicators

Comentarios

Man, you are genius. Your btc harsh rate indicator is another masterpiece I am using for my trading formula everyday. Keep up the good work man.
Responder
Inicio Analizador de acciones Analizador de Forex Crypto Screener Calendario económico Cómo funciona Funcionalidades del gráfico Precios Recomendar a un amigo Normas Centro de ayuda Soluciones broker y sitio web Widgets Soluciones gráficas Biblioteca de gráficos ligeros Blog y Noticias Twitter
Perfil Opciones de configuración del perfil Cuenta y facturación Amigos referidos Monedas Mis Tickets de Soporte Centro de ayuda Ideas publicadas Seguidores Siguiendo Mensajes privados Chat Cerrar sesión