Russia Cuts 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.4%

Russia cut its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.4% from 1.3% previously, and lowered its 2027 forecast to 1.4% from 2.8%, while growth is expected to reach 2.4% in 2029, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the Vedomosti daily in an interview on Tuesday, as reported by Reuters.

He argued that a slowdown was expected after a period of robust growth in 2023–24, which many analysts say was fuelled by military spending to support the war in Ukraine. “Economic dynamics are cyclical.

After a period of high growth, there is always a correction, often accompanied by structural transformation.

This is a normal stage for the economy,” Novak said, stressing that the economy is developing in an environment of “unprecedented pressure from sanctions.” In a surprise move, Novak said the ministry projected that the oil price used to calculate budget revenue would remain at $59 per barrel in 2026.