XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 29 Oct Expiry (Oct Track 1)

Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
  • Market is returning to a Bullish / Ranging state
  • With the Evergrande dip it seems we now have room for another bullish retracement
  • XRT had no major reaction to Evergrade dip and is rising with the market and is now about Evergrande.
  • Pricing at 0.50 seems decent (11% from strike) -80, 60, strike 85
  • XRT has the best contract price of all that I am keen on

    Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
  • Previously XRT was making lower highs. This is somewhat bearish
  • It feels like I have no other options
  • The retracement could be a short lived reaction to the sudden dip. People reentering the market
  • Delta or inflation concerns could put a damper on retail driving drops

    Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
  • There is alot of optimising for the plan, this is a feeling I always feel before I enter a trade. The Opposite side has good simple arguments but feels dwarfed against the biased optimism
  • I am rejecting the larger concerns of delta or inflation and placing alot on the reaction of Evergrade. Using it as a focal point on market sentiment

    Look For New Information
  • Two days ago 21 Sep - Retail sales showed a rebound despite Delta. +0.7% probably fueled by back to school shopping. Online purchases were the key driver of the sales.
  • Employment is down 0.2% and consumer prices increase by 0.3%

    How Do I Feel Now
  • I think with the new information on the retail sales I feel more confident but still slightly concerned and aware about the previous lower highs

    Sold 80 PUTS @ 0.47 Strike 85
    % to Strike is 10.4% from entry
    ATR percentile is low
    Max Gain: est $3760

    Total BP Block: 75K

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado: Yatta!
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