Historical Analysis: 1. Uptrending chart pattern with upper lows (Long position) 2. Jan-Mar'17 &'18 showed similar trade market with low volumes 4. Breakout in Mar'17 after 9 weekly bars (63d) 3. Strong bullish candles post the low volumes in the past (Mar, Apr & Dec) with growth ranging from 12x-17x 4. 65% historical average retracement post breakout
Justification for bull market ahead: 1. With similar low volumes and sideways price pattern b/w Jan - Mar in FY17 & FY18, the expected bull breakout should be after 9 weekly bars 2.Growth is expected to be 12x to reach upto $7.7 3. 65% retracement to pull down the price to $2.7
Market Cap Analysis: Current MCap: $26.58 Bn Expected MCap (12x): ~315 Bn Post retracement (65%) : ~111 Bn
Flip Side (Bearish): Next Support level to be at $0.23 which should bring down the Market cap to $8.7 Bn
Comentarios
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As the market continues to be bearish due to the multiple reasons (lack of trust, MT Gox, Google ban, weekend low volumes, etc.,), total crypto market cap could be expected to be pulled down to the range of $247-$289 Bn. Moreover, the XRP price as previously mentioned could fall to $0.23, failing its previous low of $0.57. This should provide an excellent buy opportunity. However, reiterating the following: 1. Expected return from the lows should be 12x till early april 2. 65% retracement post growth
If the price was $7 it would give the company a market cap value of $300 billion, that would be an increase of $277 billion in only 4 months. The largest ever comapny profit in a year was Vodafone in 2014 of $80 billion. At this rate Ripple will be $1 tillion in the next year and the biggest company of all time and double the currect value of Walmart. TA is great but you need to consider the company too when looking long term
OceanTrader
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@nsearra, you are looking at it wrong. Market cap is not a definitive way of valuating a company. It's market cap can be whatever people decide it is, $1 in does not = $1 market cap. While it might be a convenient way to compare crypto projects, it cannot be used as a cap/placeholder as a company. These are not stocks or shares. It would be like saying golds market cap is ~1.2e+13.
nsearra
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@OceanTrader, I would agree with most coins but the Ripple "team" owns most of the coins with the CEO holding 17%, if it went up to $7 the company would have a valuation so high that he would be one of the richest men in the world. My point is that it great to think of the potential of some coins but the reality is Ripple will never get to that price without being completly over valued
OceanTrader
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@nsearra, Correct, but these coins are in escrow, not to be sold freely on the open market, they are sold to large players likely below market rate. Bitcoin is held by a minority, as is gold, US dollars the list goes on. While I am not a fan of Pre-mining at all, at least they have separate working assets. They don't rely on XRP for money, their products will, so it's in their best interest to boost its price, not cripple and accumulate. A higher price will result in a more functioning product.
Fundamentally, those coins that are aiming to work within regulations are going to be the ones who pull through. Those front runners that work within current frameworks are also going to be the one to garner attention from large companies. You can have a fantastic product, but it means nothing if a good product beats you to market and has built a trust relationship.
nsearra
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@OceanTrader, Thanks... as i understood the people who own XRP (like us) will own something different to the product the banks get to use to solve the remitance issue. One of the issues with remitance is the stablity of an asset. When XRP drops or rises in value 10% in a few hours its an issue when trasfers between banks happen. I may be wrong on this but as I understand the banks may be using a seperate "XRP" which is pegged
OceanTrader
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@nsearra, My understanding is the whole process takes approx 3 seconds, so there is the potential to lose money yes, but its limited risk. At present Nostro/Vostro system can take multiple days and is already subject to fluctuation on the forex market. The key will be volume, that's why they are lining all their ducks in a row.
Having said that, it doesn't necessarily mean the bank will dump their XRP after transfer. They may choose to hold it for future transfers, the same as you would say gold.