Heres why I think ADA in this bull market can be what XRP was in the last cycle: 1. ADA IS , like XRP WAS, a top 5 coin 2. ADA has a lot of believers and a lot of haters. XRP was probably the most hated coin in 2017. 3. People who hate ADA are convinced it is useless (similar to XRP). Now XRP has been proved to be useless. With ADA, we don’t know. 4. XRP has seen two mega cycles, ADA has seen one.
A comparison of price action over the long time period shows ADA’s bull target should be somewhere between 7-15 USD. If you think this valuation is ridiculous, guess what? Back when ripple was worth 3 cents, a forecasted value of 30 cents was deemed to be ridiculous. XRP eventually went close to 3.4 USD.
Now you might argue that using that logic, ADA could do a 100x to 100 USD: That is highly unlikely because of the market maturing as a whole. Also there are a lot more alts that will suck liquidity. I will not be shocked if ADA goes to 6-7 USD this year, comparing XRP’s performance in 2017, this is a conservative estimate. 15 USD is also possible. Both these levels were obtained by comparing fib levels between ADA and XRP.
Mate, don't you think there's more opportunity in XRP than ADA? I mean ADA is almost at it's 2017 ATH while XRP has 600% more to go before hitting it's ATH again.
brotoshee
⋅
@Patralis, Good question. I have thought about it. TA would definitely show a huge upside for XRP but it has very little fundamentals / pumpamentals working in its favor. My explanation:
If you remember, back in 2016-17, there was a debate about BTC being a medium of exchange AND a store of value. There was a lot of debate if BTC can scale as a medium of exchange given its limited block sizes and no LN / SegWit. That is when coins like XRP playing in the payments sector gained traction, there were news of partnerships with banks all over the world. This got retail speculators excited. Also forks like BCH happened based on the same narrative. The narrative in itself was a huge catalyst. Eventually, second layer solutions on BTC was enough to cement it as a store of value. Except boomers like Janet Yellen, now no one talks about BTC not scaling as a medium of exchange.
Fast forward to 2020-21: Its DeFi DeFi everywhere. Its fascinating that like it was for BTC in last season, people are now arguing if ETH can scale. You see a speculative frenzy around "Eth Killers". DOT went crazy, ADA is gaining a lot of traction. The scaling narrative with ETH is strong and there are a lot of new participants in the scene who stayed out in 2016-17. Lindsey Lohan is shilling TRON for god's sake. XRP unfortunately has no narrative at such a huge scale to fuel a speculative frenzy. Additionally, people have realized that XRP really has no utility. Most coins dont but the market does not know. But a majority of the market knows XRP has no function. I admit it can still megamoon on a buying frenzy like DOGE did. But again DOGE is unique as a meme and has Elon and Cuban tweeting about it all the time. The pumpamentals are just not there in this cycle for XRP according to me. That being said, I do own some XRP that I bought during bear season. Dont need to sell just yet. Always good to have a small position than not have anything at all.
traspaso123456
⋅
@brotoshee, XRP utility is for crossborder payments for institutions and retail in a global scale, also flare, codius, coil... Also transfers are at no cost and it is eco friendly...
brotoshee
⋅
@traspaso123456, Valid points. But my point is that the narrative of medium of exchange / payments is not hot right now. Its DeFi and platform scalability. When payments start getting some hype sure XRP can go beyond 6 bucks who knows. But with no staking / supply constriction mechanism and big market narrative, its difficult. Again always good to have a position.