Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
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Many charts have been posted expecting a retrace for Bitcoin. Some are expecting a small retrace, like ourselves, while others are expecting a big retrace.
Looking at the chart above, so far there has been NO RETRACE when it comes to Bitcoin (XBTUSD). It just continues holding strong which is great news for the bulls.
Hit LIKE if you want to now... and let's get started.
Last year Bitcoin would retrace violently after any bullish action it produced was over.
It would make its move up and then be quickly be followed by a strong retrace, we are not seeing this anymore. From the last bullish wave, Bitcoin simply continues holding strong.
So let's look at some signals coming from the chart:
Bitcoin (XBTUSD) remains above EMA10, so it keeps its bullish potential.
The RSI is solid and remains above 75, signaling that the bulls are in full control. Plus higher highs and higher low.
Judging at the action we have been seeing lately if Bitcoin drops it shouldn't be more than 100/150 points.
Lately Bitcoin has been breaking out on weekends, so let's keep an eye out this weekend to see if we can find a nice trade set up.
If enough of you hit like to show that you are interested, I will share a FULL trade for XBT with huge ROE (profits potential).
Our last XBT LONG trade generated over 103% ROE. You can see it here:
Bitcoin vs Altcoins (+Altcoins Market Behaviour)
The altcoins behavior has completely changed compared to past months. Altcoins are also holding really strong, consolidating, maintaining support and many are breaking above strong resistance primarily marked by EMA10 and EMA50 on the daily time frame. These are the strongest of the smaller market cap. alts which are preparing to move strongly when the next wave comes, so they need to take out the resistance now.
So we have Bitcoin holding its strongest in many months, and the alts doing exactly the same. We are seeing signals of strength all around and above average volume.
What will happen next marketwide?
My view: The alts will still do their crazy numbers, meaning, strong massive breakouts that can generate 30-50% profits in one single daily candle, but at the same time, it won't be the same as before.
I see, on the different charts, and feel, by studying them, that there will be lots and lots of sideways action and extended periods of long consolidation, so patience now will be more important than ever.
The cryptocurrency enthusiast is used to seeing great action, massive action and they don't like to buy when crypto is slow. So a slow market allows for more whale accumulation at the bottom, without alerting the masses. Remember that whales, advanced traders, smart money, and us, are the ones buying at the bottom, beginners are not.
So if the cryptocurrency market has found a bottom, even a temporary one, the masses won't know until everything is already moving strong.
So I advise patience, loading up on your favorite altcoins before the breakout, and waiting to collect profits on the way up.
Forget about big fast profits, it doesn't work. This should be about positioning yourself now, taking it easy and seeing how it all goes. Because once we are at the bottom, the only place left to go is up.
What's your take on what the market will do next? I believe a breakout is on its way, in many 3-5 days, where we can see a good move supported by momentum and strength.
Please share your charts and comments in the comments section below.
Hit like for more great content and very profitable trades for XBT, XRPH19 (this one is already in the works) and much more.
Thanks a lot for reading... I truly appreciate your support.
Namaste.
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Previous long term analysis:
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Cryptocurrency Total Market Cap Breakout + Bullish Potential
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So far still no retrace, Bitcoin (XBTUSD) remains above EMA10 on the 4H and 1D time frames:
I posted this to Reddit, and I am reposting here because I share the same belief as you. $4,300+ is our main resistance, and I believe alts are at bottom. Slightly long winded but well worth the read IMO.
I was turned very bearish due to the drop to 3.1k. I was absolutely positive we had farther to go as I took it as a warning. I've also been extremely skeptical of why we dropped this hard in the first place. A "hash war?" REALLY!? People open your eyes, that drop was executed with flawless perfection because the CHARTS for Bitcoin were incredibly bearish. Lower high after lower high after lower high all year until volume finally plummeted, because big money knew what was coming next. Anyway, the other day, I decided to compare the bear market of 2015 to our current one, from an analytical perspective and completely unbias.
I found an incredible similarity between the bear of 2015, and now.
Initial spike followed by an exact 0.886% lower high, followed by an ABC correction, followed by impulse, followed by a final dump and then the end of the bear market. The measurements line up flawlessly. If this turns out JUST LIKE 2015, we will rally to FINALLY create the first higher high seen in Bitcoin in over a year. Then, we dump. Hard. But we *should not* break our lowest low. If we hold support above $3,120 this bear is dead, at least for the time being. If Bitcoin creates its first higher high on the daily, and especially the weekly, that will be THE signal for a lot of money that has been waiting on the sidelines. A first higher high in over a year WILL slowly incite retail + institutional FOMO. I would not be surprised to see us above 6k by mid March if a higher high produces.
So to get a better clue of whether this could be accurate or not, tonight I decided to look at alts.
I just want to say ahead of time that the only reason these particular Crypto were chosen, is because they clearly outline what the vast majority of alts are doing right now in the market.
For NEO, this is a basic outline of what is called Elliott Wave theory. There is a 5 wave structure, followed by a correction.
NEO here shows a textbook 5 waves down, and is in the process of finishing its upwards ABC correction.
What happens AFTER that final C wave correction is anyones guess, but if this bear market is over and done with, alts are getting ready to make major moves upwards. Lately, some alts have had the highest daily volume bars ever recorded, especially on Binance.
deactivatedaccount123
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@MC_Peewee, I will be watching NEO very closely to see if it can break above and hold the blue line. If it does, I'd be willing to bet says this bear market is either over with, or we are going to get a significant bounce to the upside at least temporarily in BTC.
Couple this with all the halvings coming up and you have a recipe for pure FOMO. At that point, all we need is a catalyst. DING DING Bakkt and Nasdaq. Gee, I wonder why Bakkt keeps postponing..?
NEO:
Other alts have a literal flatline bottom going on right now, most with 90%+ corrections from ATH:
Ya know, I have a very bad habit of not zooming out when trying to analyze the movements of the market. Especially when it comes to alts. Tonight I just decided to look at clean charts with no TA of any kind, and see what I see.
I warn you now, regardless of what Bitcoin does in the near-mid term, we are at or VERY NEAR bottom at least in alts.
As they say on the Wall Street cheat sheet, this is your point of maximum financial opportunity. I'm positive of it. Anyone with half a brain cell left from this bear market can pull up a chart of a top alt and see that we are indeed at a very stable level when compared to the rest of the history/time on the chart.
Within the next 8 months or so, we are going to see a LOT of posts saying "Man, I can't believe Crypto X was SO CHEAP, and I didn't get anymore of it!" Especially the FOMO coins, like buynano ;) You wait and see, some coins are going to wake up with a historically large amount of volume. I suspect NEO will be one of those coins. Take ARK for instance - we all know what that has been doing lately. I believe what we're seeing in Ark is about to happen throughout the entire market, and a lot sooner than people expect. ESPECIALLY if we are indeed at bottom.
Oh my God the FOMO will be real.
deactivatedaccount123
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@MC_Peewee, By the way, for what it's worth, the stock market has been showing increasing weakness for years. YEARS. People will say whales don't want to risk their money in Crypto - why the frig not? First of all, volatility is how you make money. ESPECIALLY if you really know how to trade. Second of all, you buy OVERSOLD and sell OVERBOUGHT on higher time frames. It does not matter what the asset itself is, so long as it has potential to make money.
Guess which one Bitcoin is on the longer timeframes? Nice crystal clear hidden bullish on the monthly.
I am warning you, if you want to make money in this market, now is your chance.
PS- these are my current thoughts on Bitcoin if anyone is interested.
@MC_Peewee, Agreed, the stock market is really weak yet near the top.
Bitcoin is holding strong yet near the bottom.
We buy low to sell high.
The wise choice here is to accumulate cryptocurrency for long term gains.
Thanks for sharing once again.
Namaste.
deactivatedaccount123
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@alanmasters, A lot of people would argue Bitcoin and Crypto is too risky. Is it really though? Bitcoin produces clear trends, with boom and bust cycles. So, it's pretty simple. Buy oversold, sell overbought. Whales who trade for a living don't care if something is risky. They mitigate that risk through strategy and discipline. When the stock market ACTUALLY comes down, Crypto is going to blow. I actually have reason to believe Crypto will become the new stock market. We'll see. I agree, the long term gains are what we need to focus on.
Love what you do, Alan. Keep it up :)
Cryptocurrency won't replace the conventional markets right away but it will become the main market because the new generation doesn't get on the old stuff. Everybody will be doing crypto and virtual currencies within the next 1-2 decades.
Conventional markets are gone.
deactivatedaccount123
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@alanmasters, Yep. It'll take a while for the millennials to shift finance, but I think it will happen a lot sooner than people expect. Millennials want a different way, and doing it via traditional methods is just too impractical. We don't trust banks, and we certainly don't trust the government. At this point all it takes is a catalyst for this market, and like you I have strong reasons to believe it will be the stock market topping out for the final time - making 2008 look like a cake walk.
My best argument still to this date, is this.
EVERYTHING has gone digital in just the past 30 years. EVERYTHING.
Except...Money. Yes, we have VISA/Mastercard, etc...But all that is, is numbers floating by on a screen. Why not make it more efficient?
If I was a multi billionaire and I had to wire 100M across the world in a matter of a few hours, I would certainly find a way to do it in Crypto rather than banks.
That is, when enough liquidity is in place anyway. Until that liquidity comes to fruition however, I believe Crypto will have a lot more hidden gems that do 100x's, 200x's, etc.
I absolutely cannot wait to see the stock market plunge. While I will feel slightly bad for people losing money, I certainly will feel a lot better knowing the majority of those people that did, trusted someone else with their money instead of putting the legwork in themselves. One of the biggest reasons I stuck around in this market after getting destroyed.
Trusting someone else with your money leaves way too many malicious options on the table for said party.
Anddddd what do you know!? We have a GIANT bubble that we can't even begin to try to sustain, BECAUSE of them.
Long Bitcoin, Gold, and precious metals...
SHORT THE BANKERS.
Easy :)
Namaste, Alan. Please keep doing what you're doing for this community. Don't let the haters get to ya.
AlanSantana
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@MC_Peewee, Great comment, thanks a lot for sharing, and will definitely keep on practicing, working, sharing, and improving as much as possible for long as I am around.
Namaste.
AlanSantana
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@MC_Peewee, Cryptocurrency will be pretty interesting after May this year, and even better after September 2019. We will see how it goes, but we will be here for sure trading, learning, growing, sharing and profiting once more.
Thanks a lot for the continued support and all these great ideas and information.
I was turned very bearish due to the drop to 3.1k. I was absolutely positive we had farther to go as I took it as a warning. I've also been extremely skeptical of why we dropped this hard in the first place. A "hash war?" REALLY!? People open your eyes, that drop was executed with flawless perfection because the CHARTS for Bitcoin were incredibly bearish. Lower high after lower high after lower high all year until volume finally plummeted, because big money knew what was coming next. Anyway, the other day, I decided to compare the bear market of 2015 to our current one, from an analytical perspective and completely unbias.
I found an incredible similarity between the bear of 2015, and now.
Initial spike followed by an exact 0.886% lower high, followed by an ABC correction, followed by impulse, followed by a final dump and then the end of the bear market. The measurements line up flawlessly. If this turns out JUST LIKE 2015, we will rally to FINALLY create the first higher high seen in Bitcoin in over a year. Then, we dump. Hard. But we *should not* break our lowest low. If we hold support above $3,120 this bear is dead, at least for the time being. If Bitcoin creates its first higher high on the daily, and especially the weekly, that will be THE signal for a lot of money that has been waiting on the sidelines. A first higher high in over a year WILL slowly incite retail + institutional FOMO. I would not be surprised to see us above 6k by mid March if a higher high produces.
So to get a better clue of whether this could be accurate or not, tonight I decided to look at alts.
I just want to say ahead of time that the only reason these particular Crypto were chosen, is because they clearly outline what the vast majority of alts are doing right now in the market.
For NEO, this is a basic outline of what is called Elliott Wave theory. There is a 5 wave structure, followed by a correction.
NEO here shows a textbook 5 waves down, and is in the process of finishing its upwards ABC correction.
What happens AFTER that final C wave correction is anyones guess, but if this bear market is over and done with, alts are getting ready to make major moves upwards. Lately, some alts have had the highest daily volume bars ever recorded, especially on Binance.