GOLD: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + NEXT TAGET | SHORT SETUP

14 sept 2021

History repeats itself. When the Fed began withdrawing monetary stimulus in 2013, the price of gold plummeted. At that time, it took ten months to reduce QE. Currently, unemployment is at 5.2%, significantly lower than eight years ago, and inflation is much hotter. The FOMC hawks are eager to end the $120 billion QE program by mid-2022. If everything goes according to their plan, XAUUSD bulls will have a hard time. According to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, there is no need to follow a certain time frame or the approach that was previously. Macroeconomic indicators are better than in the past. According to 40% of financial times experts, the Fed will announce QE tapering in November, 31% expect it in December.
Experts have increased their forecasts for PCE from 3% to 3.7% by the end of 2021. Most of them expect inflation to continue to exceed the 2% target at the end of 2022.

Gold buyers should also fear the seasonal nature of COVID-19. Last summer, the epidemiological situation in the United States deteriorated significantly, while in Europe everything was more or less normal. However, in mid-autumn, the gap began to close. If history repeats itself in 2021, the slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone will deprive the euro of its main advantage and significantly lower the price of the EURUSD.

16 sept 2021

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