Probability of Profit: 89% Max Profit: 77/contract Max Loss: 223/contract Break Even: 16.77
Notes: This is way farther out than I generally like to go with these, but with the /VX term structure the way it is currently and the way it has been for the past several months, this is probably the best I'm going to get until the term structure adjusts upward giving me >16 short call strikes equal to the /VX future price in shorter duration setups.
In the mean time, I'll keep my eyeballs peeled for a 45-day contango drift trade in one of the derivatives -- VXX, UVXY, SVXY on a VXST/VIX ratio of >1.00 (it's currently something like .86).
Operación cerrada manualmente
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Covering here for a .52 db, so .25 ($25) profit/contract with 119 DTE. Will look to re-up in shorter duration expiries, assuming we ever get a pop ... .
When? is the question to me as several key economy metrics are worse now than they were before any of the recent dips going back to 87s black Friday. Actual earnings as opposed to (I forget the term) the "standard book keeping practices" earnings that are reported quarterly are not advancing in the same way, people have less spendable income and traders/speculators in general are now at ~3x previous record margin amounts chasing this reality discounting chimera. So it will be big, just do not know when. My humble opinion. Keep smiling!
NaughtyPines
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@Tom1trader, Agree totally. This up move borders on "insane" and is largely based on fulfillment of Trump agenda promises, none of which have come to pass, although this tax "reform" package (if that's what it is; it's more just like a plain tax cut) appears to stand a better chance than repeal and replace, etc. Only time will tell ... . For the time being, keeping tons of powder dry ... .
Tom1trader
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@NaughtyPines, :-) I looked it up, the term I wanted was GAAP for Generally Accepted Accounting Practises. The reason I mentioned it was depending on how the rules are applied, two accountants can turn in a set of books on the same business with different numbers, including profit and both be approved by a CPA checking their books. Googling it brings up some interesting reading. Those differences are greater in the short term so eventually I guess they have to "pay the piper".