VIX is uptrending, and the correction is nearly completed.
What to expect next: 1) VIX should develop the primary wave 1 hitting 50..60. 2) A correction to ~40 should ensue. 3) The real crash of all indices happens next, pushing VIX to ~150 in wave 3 and 5.
The rising VIX mirrors the increasingly instable equity and debt markets. Note the clear downtrends in Deutsche Bank (the most systemically dangerous bank) and in Treasuries.
I think Deutsche is heading to zero this time. The reporting is due this week, then a drop to 6..7, accompanies by VIX at 50..60. Then a brief correction, and then everything crashes in the most wild manner that the world has ever seen.
We are dealing with the final leg of risk-off move echoing back to as far as 2008 crash, and cross-asset correlations tend to increase towards the end of risk-off. Expect to see the Euro and other base pairs to fall sharply together with stocks and Crude. I maintain my targets of EUR below 0.9 and GBP below 1.10. SPX can try to approach 1000.
Hey Andy, when are you expecting this VIX 150 level ?
Thank you for sharing your ideas
Tomasgei
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Hi i totally agree with this idea. I sharing my observation
ProfitHarvest
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Nice, let’s see!
AndyM
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@ProfitHarvest, I think VIX will set a new low below 20 today on payrolls, but it doesn't change much. Treasuries are going down, and will take the rest of the market with them in the next couple of months.
logica
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@AndyM - what happens to the dollar and TLT if this happens do you think?
julia17
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Hi, Andy, agree with you, what about time frame for 150 VIX, have some options.
AndyM
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@julia17, Hi, nice to hear from you! ^) I think it should be in H1 this year, I don't see this move into summer. I hold EURUSD puts expiring end May and mid June.
julia17
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@AndyM, about eurusd, there is down channel from 2008, so I see it like you, just 0.94, well, will be interesting year:)
AndyM
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@julia17, The biggest surprise will be in the EUR. Nobody can see the EUR at 0.88 a few months from now, not even JPMorgans or Citibanks of this world. But this is extremely obvious.
Thank you for sharing your ideas