Dirty practices of corporate forecasts portrayed in the media
Actualizado
On Tuesday, we touched on the subject of corporate forecasts in the oil market portrayed in the media. In fact, we remarked how the recent announcements of ultra-bullish forecasts were very reminiscent of the 2022 oil market top and that we were pretty skeptical about the rally's sustainability (though we warned about this on a different platform three weeks sooner). Fast forward to today, and we can see that oil is down from nearly $95 a week ago to less than $84 today (down more than 12%). With this price action following recent upgrades for the oil price by various financial entities, we would like to point out a few similar news articles in the past, which often preceded the trend reversal to the opposite direction of the forecast. While we can only speculate whether it is intentional or not, we have seen these practices taking place for years, with big players coming to tell retail investors to buy near the market top or sell near the market bottom. The following presentation aims to advocate that one should always do their own research rather than rely on the opinion of others whose true intent or trading strategy is unknown.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows some of JP Morgan’s forecasts in the past year or so, written as articles published by various media outlets (keep in mind that we are not showing all of the forecasts; there were some that were actually fulfilled).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays more corporate forecasts from JP Morgan.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows some of JP Morgan’s forecasts in the past year or so, written as articles published by various media outlets (keep in mind that we are not showing all of the forecasts; there were some that were actually fulfilled).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays more corporate forecasts from JP Morgan.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish)
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nota
*Correction to the information in Illustration 1.01 - "JPMorgan says oil could spike to $150, gets very bullish on energy stocks", the source is CNBC, not CNN.Nota
USOIL fell below $82,50, marking a decline of more than 13% from a week ago.Nota
USOIL continues to slide lower, breaking below $82 per barrel.
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