break below 65.21 would send another invitation to bears
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the decline after flat was in three waves, so the flat could be a wave W instead
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I came up with a different count
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I am shifting my previous preferred count to alternative structure purple count is my preferred structure
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Since the short-term pattern looks corrective, the July high of $75.25 could be broken again
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and of course, the bearish count may still work, but whether there is any trading opportunity or not, could be a different story another push above 71.36 would suggest the triangle case mentioned above any close below 64.4 could lead to further bearish potential (the potential that $75.25 is a larger degree top)
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possible bigger picture
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almost there?
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wave {A} done?
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short-term bullish count wave {iii} has already surpassed the 1.618 extension (at 50.99)
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the 1.618 extension should be at $51.80
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short-term bullish count in blue, alter count in grey
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if wave {v} has ended at $54.3, we should expect a three wave correction which could drag price back to the end of wave {iv} ( note the pink {a}-{b}-{c} could also be just the wave {a} or {w} at the same degree); if wave {iv} is still unfolding ( e.g. triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e)), another modest push above $54.3 is possible although I think it's very less likely to happen.
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short-term count
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complex wave 2?
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the alternative count
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running triangle for wave (B)?
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a flat for wave (B)?
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wave (C) is likely underway alternatively another zigzag decline to complete wave E of (B)
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the alternative triangle probably will not happen, here is my short-term guessing so far
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min target could be at 58.61 where wave (C) = 0.618 wave (A), ideal target is still around $63
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possible short-term count
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flat for wave 2?
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break above wave 1 high of 57.86 could indicate wave 3 of (C) is underway
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OR
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Wave (C) could be an ending diagonal
However, we could still assume (C) is an impulse wave rather than diagonal and count the short-term structure as below
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Any close below the red wave 1 high at 57.85 would increase the odd for ending diagonal scenario, although you could still argue this is a 1-2-{i}-{ii} bullish structure
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divergence between RSI & Price
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triangle wave 4 ?
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or flat wave 4 followed by wave 5, wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3
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wave 5 is less likely to move beyond $64.12 ( where wave 5 = wave 3)
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almost there?
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An impulsive fall below wave {iv} low at $61.8 would suggest wave {v} of (C) is in place. Alternatively, any push above $64.06 would argue wave (C) has more bullish potential.
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if price move above $64.06, I would consider label red wave 3 as {i} of 3 of (C).
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There are number of different ways to count the bullish structure
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short-term count or
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The decline was sharp, but it has not made any significant change to the overall structure yet.
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We simply need to see sharp reverse (within the lower time frame) to the upside to keep wave 4 scenario alive. If price only produce bearish sideways( or any other corrective patterns), then we could refer to the above count and sell after the breakout.