This weeklys and fridays candle sticks suggests bearish price action is on the cards. So I thought it maybe good to share a bearish idea.
This idea suggest that the drop from the 105:s was a leading diagonal. At the moment we have completed 7 swings to the upside, where w=y.
As long as the x-wave low (101.182) holds we can't rule out more upside to complete a triple zigzag correction.
More importantly, the market has to take out the 102.632 high to confirm that the move from the x-wave low was indeed a three wave sequence, and not an ongoing 5 waves advance.
I will probably end up shorting this pair against last weeks high because of the bearish candlesticks on the weekly and daily chart, aswell as keeping an close eye on the mentioned levels and my previous, bullish idea.
There is a possibility that we have only seen the first wave of wave 5 at the higher degree and wave 2 of this wave 5 just got over and wave 3 of 5 is still unfolding else we are in a B wave. But the impulsive nature of the wave seems to me like we are likely not in a B wave.
Fundamentally: On one hand we have a economy that is not as great as we want it to be and it may make it look like the dollar will weaken, but on the other had there may be a flight to dollar for safety also. Request your comments.
traderWgun
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The waves are very overlapping, so that favors the bearish view,
yes you are right about that the nature is impulsive, but that is not at all uncommon
for complex correction. Just look at the GBPCHF, a complex correction made up of
impulsive moves.
As I have written above, I'm not to sure about this pair. We need more
data to get clarity, but for now I will follow the candle stick a short.
And IF my bearish count is right, then the risk/rewark will be very good.
Good luck m8!
muazah.utang
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Hi, I like the idea of it reversing to 102.95/103.00(respecting the daily breakout trendline) and rebounding to new highs. We'll see.. waiting for a right price action
traderWgun
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Good luck! :)
muazah.utang
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Yup.. did made the turn to 102.96. Entry time.. waiting for a break from downtrendline
dojitrader
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Like the count ~~~ That mess in February really makes it difficult to figure.
I'll be looking to short around 103.60/80. Hope the candlesticks light my way.
Are you still looking to buy dips ?
Thanks for your thoughts !!!!
traderWgun
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Nope, the weekly candlesticks has turned me bearish.
The EW count needs more data, but the candlesticks
are clear across the board.
Good luck!
traderWgun
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USDMXN, which has an inverted relationship with USDJPY, is showing 7 swings to the downside and it's... looking rather bullish on the daily
There is a possibility that we have only seen the first wave of wave 5 at the higher degree and wave 2 of this wave 5 just got over and wave 3 of 5 is still unfolding else we are in a B wave. But the impulsive nature of the wave seems to me like we are likely not in a B wave.
Fundamentally: On one hand we have a economy that is not as great as we want it to be and it may make it look like the dollar will weaken, but on the other had there may be a flight to dollar for safety also. Request your comments.