On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) is forming. Now the entering momentum of the lower level i of 3 has formed, and the downward correction ii of 3 has developed. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2920–1.3131. The level of 1.2449 is critical for this scenario.
Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.2449 with the targets at 1.2920–1.3131.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2449 will let the pair go down to the level of 1.2255.
Trade
Scenario
Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 1.2653 Take Profit 1.2920, 1.3131 Stop Loss 1.2565 Key Levels 1.2255, 1.2449, 1.2920, 1.3131
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.2440 Take Profit 1.2255 Stop Loss 1.2500 Key Levels 1.2255, 1.2449, 1.2920, 1.3131