Inflation is the hot topic, deflationists have been told to leave, don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Anytime the weekly RSI on TLT has gotten this oversold we have been at or near a bottom.
Maybe Inflation Nation is getting too crowded and GOLD which follows TLT closely is sniffing this out.
The "Big Short" is buying call options on 3X levered Short Treasury ETFs, what could go wrong?
Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado
⋅
Since I posted this bond sentiment has gone from the teens to the 90's percentile and reached my target of the summer 19 highs. Now that the 'big short' has egg all over his face, it might be time to short them
Did Burry already exit his 3X levered short position on TLT, you think?
RobAllenS
⋅
@T-r-X, I don't know, but we may get news of this on twitter? He's more than 3x levered, more like 100x or more with options. Burry was way early (2005) on the big short thesis, he may be here too. My thesis is we may be putting in a right shoulder of a giant H&S in bonds.
@T-r-X, and David Rosenberg, Eric Basmajian, Jeff Snider. I understand these guys and try to keep an open mind.
From a technical perspective on of my favorite setups is a long trending channel with a large
overthrow of the channel which puts in a buying or selling climax. You look at 10yr 30yr
treasury yield charts you have a good channel down from early 80's with a massive capitulation spike
into covid lows. Too me, that looks like and huge selling climax (bond buying climax)
So I feel we could have seen the end of the bond bull, but nothing goes in a straight line.
T-r-X
⋅
@RobAllenS, Still hard to imagine that we will see higher rates long term, government and corporate debt would be unpayable.