I am not saying the bottom is in, but what if the bottom is in? In this analysis, I will tell you why it is possible!
Everyone is extremely bearish on the stock market. There is a record of purchasing PUT options from retail investors and usually the majority is wrong. But in this case, the majority could be right. We don't know.
As you can see, we have a huge parallel channel on the daily chart, and I would love to see a breakout above the channel.
But from the Elliott Wave perspective, an ABC correction (ZigZag) can be considered as completed with an extended A wave. If you are an Elliott Wave trader, you see a nice impulse wave as a C wave.
If we take a look at the RSI indicator, we can see a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. This gives us hope for at least a bullish bounce to the upside.
The 200 moving average is powerful on the weekly and daily chart. This MA is considered a strong support/resistance by huge institutions and hedge funds together with the 0.618 FIB retracement.
Interest rates are rising, which is, of course, very bad for the stock market. I know this and that's why I am not buying stocks, because I am a trader, not an investor, even though I have bitcoins for the long term.
So, has the stock market reached its bottom? I would say maybe a 30% probability.
Look at my idea about Bitcoin in the related section down below.
Very good analysis this time. I am surprised that someone who can make the horrendous monster of a chart I saw before with 4 1,2's nested can also be making logical counts like this one. it's unnerving. Only thing you forgot to mention is that the A wave in your count is leading diag..
Tolberti
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@bowtrix, Thanks a lot. Glad you like my analysis.
ArmanShabanTrading
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Always The Best , I appreciate your your analysis
SquishTrade
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It's always good to think of alternative scenarios. I don't think the bottom is in. But a bear rally looks probable with the RSI divergence and the way markets are behaving! Good call mate!
Solldy
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The idea was not too informative. In general, many of the arguments I have already noted for myself, but supported my vision) Thanks for your publication, my friend!