Coronavirus interrupted a massive 4-5 year Head and Shoulders pattern in the middle of the peak to create a Frankenstein Head and Shoulders Doubletop Megaphone pattern... a.k.a the MegaHead and Double ShoulderPhoneTM pattern.
Now Price will fall back around left shoulder levels around major S/R.
Coronavirus just sped up what was already in process... the 4-5 year pattern that fundamentally aligned with the expectation and likelihood of an oncoming recession in 2021 pre-COVID.
So that pattern will be cut short and peak around the New Year.
It is at this point... after the default (mortgage/auto/college), eviction, real estate and virus crises culminate in an ultimate crescendo (and maybe a banking crisis as well if we're lucky!)... we will steadily drop to ultimate market bottom in Spring 2022.
We are in the midst of a massive bubble brought on by tax cuts for the wealthy and Big Business and the following massive Stock Buyback and Wealthy People Liquidity programs.
Many big name trader people and a fair number of TView commonfolk have been calling for 1400-1600, even some exactly calling 1550 right at the strongest trend convergence point... I think this is a snapshot of some of the data they were basing those predictions on. The difference is the data is now revealing a potential period in time for this bottom.
The red lines represent the top of the 38Y trend channel with a bit of overshoot.
The purple line is the is the 38Y Market Baseline Trend.
The magenta (?) horizontal lines are the strongest 20Y S/R channel and capture the 2Y peaks in both 1999-2000 and 2007-2008 and the 2011-2012 period.
The white uptrend line is the strongest S/R for both those previous peaks and coincides exactly with the predicted bottom of the Megaphone pattern.
As is typical with this pattern when it reaches the end, Price will fall even further below and be caught by the strongest 20Y S/R and 38Y Market Baseline Trend all converging with a major downward S/R (other white line).
I think the gravity of this point on the market map is very high and the depravity we've seen our society degrade into will finally become too great to ignore and reach a breaking point.
Sacrificing the People at the alter of Profit gets you some quick wins for the first few decades but it can't last forever.
What is to be rebuilt, must first be torn down.
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Here's some perspective B)...
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Oh and there are a handful of people out there making compelling arguments for SPX <1k. This theory further validates that potential as the bottom white line is the strongest downward S/R in the whole 38Y chart and coincides with a worst case, low probability scenario around 750 here.
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Also note that on July 29th Big Money withdrew the most money from the market since they withdrew the GOAT amount the day the world learned China wouldn't be able to contain the coronavirus (February 13th)... a couple weeks before the March crash began: barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$TRIN/technical-chart
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And make sure to get in the habit of regularly looking at DIX: ibb.co/xF9zzvn
Look at your chart and analysis I know for sure you are not going to become rich until you relearn everything about technical analysis and macroeconomics
@z3m25@ProfitHarvest I so agree with this - LAST WEEK most the Fangs were DOWN - only Appl and Tsla and Nvda carried the Nasdaq. The leadership is getting smaller and smaller and there is NO way that continues. Appl and Tsla distribute the splits next week and historically they both pullback after the split so then we have NO Fangs making new highs - Meanwhile - Russell 2000 and NYSE broader indexes are steadily DOWN almost 10% since 8-11 and they are the broader market. I am tired of margin calls.
z3m25
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Is there a way for me to share a chart from another ticker on spx?
We've been dragged up by the 8 or so stocks and they can all be found in 1 ticker which I've been tracking. From what I can see we've just hit a peak. I jumped back in 30% before close Friday, I'm going to add another 30 on Monday. It's hard to trade against such heavy momentum, but the charts are strong.
@z3m25, Dude what's the update on this chart? So curious for next week.
z3m25
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@ProfitHarvest, We're in the last leg of the up-trend when money changes hands from the fools to smart. I haven't had time to plot FNGU or SPX yet today, but I have starting drawing the trend lines. It's clear to me that we are in a topping pattern, but that typically last months to years. With Covid I suspect it could be months, but I think things are Very clear as to where we are headed in the short term. The trend is our friend.