Very short term trade, time 1-2 weeks. Closed my $50 Puts at $44, had a great earnings play betting to the downside. I'm going to use those profits to take a bit of a gamble and attempt to play the reversal.
Objective: We're near multiple areas of support at $43, $42, $41, and the 1.168 Fib extension. I'm going long calls that have an August 16th expiration $45 strike. If this gets to $41 I'll buy the $42.5 strikes. 22% is overextended to the downside, and this company isn't going out of business anytime soon. I'm confident one of those will make a profit. Targeting $46-47.
Subjective: I actually recently was looking at plane tickets (unrelated to this play) and Spirit Airlines has a new membership subscription program where you get perks with a $50 a year membership. Anything subscription based has been profitable across industries, airlines have all been screwing customers across the board (things that used to be free, you have to pay for/more now, because "F you what are you going to do about it"), and this company really loves to cut corners after dealing with their ticket buying system.
I got in a little too early. Nice subjective info! Most companies are moving towards similar subscription style service.
teckno05
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@KhrnoT, Thanks for the feedback, when did you get in? I usually have a S1, S2 for support 1 and 2. If you're always expecting price to go a step lower than your target, it's less stressful and you allow yourself a wider margin of error. I felt 43, 42,and 41 would be good levels. So while I'm pretty heavily in right now I'm still comfortable. All I want is a 0.382 retrace which I felt would be highly probably in the next 3 weeks (August 16th Calls at $42.5 and $45 strikes).
KhrnoT
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@teckno05, I got in at $43.80, got out at $43.50. I'll keep my eyes on this one, maybe get in if value trend above $46.
teckno05
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@KhrnoT, I'm seeing MFI divergences now so I would be surprised if it's not at $44 by the end of the week. I'm prepared to buy at $41 still.
@KhrnoT, I made a quick chart for you. This isn't typically the kind of set up I would be looking for to go long, but earnings is August 6th, so if you wanted to gamble with options or something, you could have a play there. Otherwise this stock is in a consistent downtrend since 2008, and price has already had 3 taps on that white trendline support and broken though. I wouldn't go heavy in this position, I'm sure in a year it would be a profitable trade eventually but that's a waste of time and capital allocation for me.
I have a paid subscription service where I help novice-intermediate traders with Q&A, stock/crypto/commodity analysis, and trading tips (especially for crypto) but I don't mind helping out. Feel free to ask anything and check out my history on trading predictions if you want more in depth.
teckno05
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@teckno05, You know what, looking closer on the 1D chart, and looking at the Sept 20th $2 call prices at $14 per 100 shares... Doesn't seem like a bad gamble for fun. I just bought a few.
teckno05
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@Livingstone821 If you have access to options, spend a few $$ here
KhrnoT
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@teckno05, Thanks for the review. I bought 1500 shares at 1.60 and got out at 1.80 today. Not a bad profit. I set my limit at 1.80 because it has a history of getting rejected at the mean of 225 bband on 1hr timeframe. If it breaks through I may buy a smaller share.