📌 The point of this configuration is that the highs have been lost, since the effectiveness (right..) of the stimulus and the extension above that has NOTHING to do with fundamental or economic reality.
This influence can be seen in DAX which cannot make use of the highs. Secondly, there is the threat of Covid and Brexit. In other worst, the risk which triggered the dominos has not gone anywhere despite the political fairy-dust around re-openings. The underlying structural weakness in the economy is profound, masses are cheerleading back to normal while millions remain unemployed. This illustrates the fearlessness of retail.
We must now test the lows / support in global equities into U.S. elections and into 2021. This stimulus can be regarded as having come to nothing, and the conjunction of re-balancing worked very well for a handful of individuals. Mortalities are reaching all time highs in many U.S. states, ICU beds are reaching full capacity and showing no signs of abating. Policy mistake after policy mistake.
Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
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Heads up.. US10Y flirting to breakdown and trigger the dominos in equities:
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Very little to update here... sadly virus escalating out of control and NQ trading +20% above its DMA.
Still no fills on the position @ 10500, we will leave it pending this week incase we get the gravity reset, otherwise we can look to open a new position with fresh levels.
Operación activa
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Tracking 10,600 for the close
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Stops are starting to look vulnerable here for jobs data later this week, a very important NY session for 11,100.
Operación cerrada: precio stop alcanzado
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Updates here after stops failed the hold the light summer liquidity squeeze.
This one will be painful if we turn into September on time for the election cycle, we can re-open the US and Global Equity charts this week for another attempt.
Hey, excellent analysis as always, but, don't you think the market will fall only when they will stop printing money?
and that won't happen until the US election I assume
tonchev
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@Avirany, Pretty accurate about the money printing "problem" .... I agree..
ridethepig
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An interesting question @Avirany, a recession traditionally last for 5 quarters. In those 5 quarters, throughout history on average 2 will be 'bullish' or dead-cat-bounces. These are not V-shaped recoveries and instead imply a fresh decline into the elections, and 2021 with a Biden sweep. To the other side, if Trump wins it may short-circuit the correction in equities and trigger a round of fresh demand for private assets.
ricastein
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I believe I have been reading negative posts such as this since 2009. Some day one of you will be right. Ascending wedges do not always work out, and Elliott wave leaves too much to interpretation.
ThumbSkin
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This is just bad TA
ridethepig
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Thanks for the feedback @ThumbSkin ... How can it improve?
apsnt
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Bro, the 2nd wave is going to be bullish because of FED's printing! The fact that the dollar is going to get dilluted is another story.
ridethepig
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I agree with the point you are making regarding dollar devaluation however, we are just not there YET. You can see this via Yields and Gold not bending the knee to the rally in equities and joining in @apsnt.
ridethepig
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Here is the latest Gold chart which has been screaming that risk is still prevalent:
ridethepig
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While long bonds are still waiting to confirm the final nail in the coffin:
and that won't happen until the US election I assume