MSFT long @ 417.13 for a quick bump

2 oct

It's oversold (according to my algo so please don't waste your time with telling me it's nowhere near oversold). It's in what I'd call a consolidation phase after more than doubling in the last 22 months. Unless there is a total macro meltdown, I don't see it having any good reason to (at worst) fall below the August 395 level and to do so would require to to breach the blue trend line as well as support from the early September low. I just don't see that happening soon.

That said, I'm a short term trader and with it being oversold, Im looking for a quick move higher in the next few days. Nothing amazing, I don't think, but enough to make me a quick buck or two. Maybe testing that upper blue resistance line.

Longer term, I'd give MSFT "core holding" status alongside NVDA as a major player in AI. NVDA from the hardware side, but MSFT in what I think will turn out to be the more lucrative side - applications. MSFT has a nearly endless number of potential applications for AI and are investing heavily in it, for both themselves and to provide services for customers down the road.

I'd get bearish if it broke down below 395, but if that happens, I really think there will be nowhere to hide in the market. Obviously if it breaks the upper blue resistance line, I see 465-470 ATH as its next test. I think short term it tests the blue support trend line and bounces. That's what I'm here for.

3 oct

Operación activa

Added 1 lot at 416.53 at the close - still oversold.

Lots currently held:
417.13
416.53

4 oct

Operación activa

Added another lot at the close at 416.06 - still oversold.

Lots currently held:
417.13
416.53
416.06

7 oct

Operación activa

Still oversold so I added another lot at 409.26 just before the close.

Lots currently held:
417.13
416.53
416.06
409.26

22 oct

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

Closed out the position just now, selling all 4 lots at 428.92. Things didn't happen as quickly as I expected, but all in all a decent trade. Time to put that capital back to work. Today should provide ample opportunity for that.

Lot 1: +2.8% in 14 trading days
Lot 2: +3.0% in 13 trading days
Lot 3: +3.1% in 12 trading days
Lot 4: +4.8% in 11 trading days

22 oct

Nota

Trade results (for my records)

Wins 4 Losses 0

Avg gain per lot = +3.43%
Avg days held per lot = 12.5
Avg gain per lot per day held = +0.274%
Annualized gain per lot = .274% x 252 = +69.1%

31 oct

Nota

This is why I hate trading around earnings season. I'm glad I booked my profits when I did, even if it wasn't right at the short term top. Not being long when it drops is just as profitable and being long when it rises. I still think long-term the arrow is up for MSFT though, and it's on sale again. I'm adding it to my watch list, but I'm waiting until after the election to put more money to work. I don't like uncertainty because the market doesn't like uncertainty.

Keeping my powder dry, especially when t-bill ETFs are paying me 5.2% yields to be a spectator for now, is fine with me. I'll keep selling off winners until the election is over. I can't say I won't add at all, but I'm being consciously less aggressive until after the election smoke clears. If there's an armed uprising again, the market won't take that well at all. Probably defensive names only on the menu for me for now. It might cost me a few bucks of lost profit opportunities here and there, but you can't put a price on peace of mind, especially knowing there will be opportunities every day going forward once the dust settles.

This is also a lesson in why diversification is important. My now semi-substantial position in MO is paying off big today and some side chemicals and oil-related plays like PXS are having their first decent couple of days in a while. Stay safe out there people. And remember - nobody ever went broke taking a profit!

12 nov

Nota

tradingview.com/news/gurufocus:a1cfa189a094b:0-microsoft-s-13-billion-ai-bet-called-best-money-ever-spent-by-wall-street/

Seems like I saw this somewhere about a month ago... (scroll up to my original post).