Triangles are very uncommon in 2nd waves. I've taken another look at miners this awkward 2nd wave (white count) doesn't quite look right to me. Could it prove itself? Sure. However, targets for this current rise converge with fibs for a b-wave retrace (upward retrace), so I've drawn a red A-B-C alternative. This impulsive rise, should it continue as depicted, doesn't even have to reach the red B-wave target box before turning down hard in wave C of a larger (2). I'm on high alert...currently long but scaling back. Dropped all my short-dated GDX options yesterday and placed stop orders on several miner stocks. I'm gonna look over the HUI and metals charts for other clues into the metal/miner complex.
"WAVE TWO" can never be a "TRIANGLE" (NEVER).
(ONLY "PART" OF THE CORRECTION) in wave two could be a triangle.
"EDUCATION"
nick.holland78
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@jeffreyjim, I've seen that rule. Good point. Every rule has an exception, so I went with 'very uncommon.' I'd never trade this move - or any other - expecting it to develop into an exception.
jeffreyjim
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@nick.holland78, (" Not this one.") If someone thinks wave 2 is a triangle ( it is really a "B" wave only)
lantao517
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GDX is near the support of 60DMA and 200DMA, if it break down to that area things will change dramatically, what a bull trap it was in late August...... seems like last breakout was a invalid and bull trap at all
nick.holland78
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Yeah, the Daily HUI kinda looks worse since price didn't make a *possible* set of nested 1-2s. The red count on this chart is viable, too. In both impulsive counts, GDX and HUI, the 1st wave came up short of the 38.2% extension (log-based) which also gives me pause. I'm inclined to think a longer, deeper correction is possible until proved otherwise. How? Price breaking decisively over the 61.8% extension would be a start, followed by the 76.4% extension. And a convincing Elliott Wave pattern to match.
nick.holland78
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Here, on the 30 min chart, I've shown lower support for cir-4 of (iii) as a blue box. Should turn higher from the low 24s though. This white (i)-(v) count could be part of either cir-i or red B...
nick.holland78
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That initial move up in wave (i) would be a leading diagonal. Same on HUI chart. Another reason for pause in my hopeful bullish posture.
nick.holland78
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Latest micro 30m pic. Wave (iii) subdivision unclear until pattern fills in. Lowest targets in move achieved, but can continue to extend as shown in yellow.
(ONLY "PART" OF THE CORRECTION) in wave two could be a triangle.
"EDUCATION"