The marketing team behind gold and silver are always telling dumb and dead money that they should "hedge" against a "collapsing US Petrodollar" during times of global instability by being long on metals.
The trade rarely works out. Gold and silver not only routinely follow the equities markets straight to Hell, but tend to get dumped during the start of new index impulse swings.
This rally while the SPX gave up its 5% rally is actually a significant anomaly.
But if the propaganda never, ever worked out, the propaganda would stop working and the marketing team would be out of a job.
And that more or less sums up a 10% monthly rally on gold that's killed short sellers who wanted to comfortably ride a trend down.
You can see on the monthly that this price action is just more ranging, more wick plays, and there's a notable unbalanced gap under $1,800.
It's really important to keep a cool head as a goldbug, especially under the condition where the establishment media is reporting that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is long several hundred tonnes worth of gold.
The CCP is collapsing and everything that is going on in the world has to do with the various members of the CCP around the world, who are not of the Chinese race, scrambling to bury their skeletons while also trying to ensure they can take control of the country when the regime falls.
And because of that, there's no reason to believe that a CCP that is desperately selling US Treasuries (see: Santiago Capital) for USD is going to be allowed to go plussy plus greeny green on its deeply deep goldy gold position.
What hangs over the head of everyone on this planet is the Party's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million students and Disciples, a sin committed by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, that has even had the audacity to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting.
Keep your distance from and wash your hands from anything related to the CCP, including the western factions that have become a particle of the Party swearing Marxist vows in Shanghai.
So, here's the trade.
Doesn't matter if gold takes $2,015. It's not the right overall timing for a new rally to $2,200.
Instead, either go short, or wait for gold to trade under $1,800 again.
There's no reason to believe gold is a new bull market until longs have been ruthlessly violated. There's no reason to believe metals are going to rally as a hedge during an international war or a major equity sell off, or a major equity rally lol.
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Friday and Monday's price action cannot be considered the type of price action where there's a sharp and violent indication of a trend reversal.
And yet at the same time, it's a different pattern than the retrace-consolidate "flagging" that indicates the real intention is to mark up another 5%.
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Since the trend is down, now, I would gander the bull case would be $1,940~ followed by a real reversal.
Any lower than that and it's just a back breaker.
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Friday and it she takes out the stops, to much fanfare telling everyone to buy while it's up.
The bear thesis relies entirely on whether she starts dumping now, however.
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Gold's monthy bar did everything you'd want to see bearishly, and on 4H bars made a legit failure swing.
What's hard about short is if she does retrace to 1,950/1,920, it's a game theory bind to hold or close.
But as we've seen with stuff like crude, gaps, and DTs can be preserved for months before they get taken out.
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Gold's losing $2,000 again and the trajectory having shifted down is notable.
$1,950 and $1,920 are possible reversal areas though.
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Doesn't look like $1,950 is a bottom, which makes $1,910 a target.
Indexes rallying and metals dumping is consistent with bad news for metals.
I expect to see either a $1,904 or an $1,898 print some time next week.
Thanks a lot for ur analysis. I think highlighting this last bit is a must tho " The bear thesis relies entirely on whether she starts dumping now, however."
Thanks again!
cryptocandy
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So you think there is now a case for a correction now after taking out these stops above 2000? thanks
LordWrymouth
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@cryptocandy, Yeah, price action hasn't supported it, but it doesn't make any sense for gold to bull run right now. What that means is that this rippy rip has actually been the correction in an overall downswing, subject to it losing $2,000 properly again, at least.
print360360
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Pls update View Gold!
lonelyCheese71371
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Sir, Any update on GC
lonelyCheese71371
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Sir, Any update on GC
BTCTradLife
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Absolutely retarded analysis. China AND Russia and many others have been loading gold for multiple years now. China has over 20,000 tons on record, not hundreds. The dollar will no longer be reserve currency and if you think $2000 is expensive you are absolutely clueless and hopefully no one considers this analysis when making a financial security decision. And of course the Communists are not good and harvest organs of their people; what does that have to do with gold again?
The bear thesis relies entirely on whether she starts dumping now, however."
Thanks again!