A trend is weak when you are not making a new high after 5-bars.
An uptrend is weak when you are below the most frequent price.
In this case, FB hasn't made a new high in 8 days.
FB is below the "most frequent price" since it peaked 9 days ago.
FB disconnected from the most frequent price last Thursday, and the most frequent price had 6 days of trading.
FB can decline for 6-days. Day1 was Thursday.
Measure the price range around the "most frequent price" and use that for targeting. See 64 area (red arrow).
TIm 9:46AM EST 3/24/2014
Comentarios
A-shot
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Would you please update the idea to the current price. Would be a great deal of help pre-earnings :)
A-shot
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Do you see head and shoulders? That adds to the short idea
timwest
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Yes. I believe I mentioned the H&S pattern in a previous chart - the "rolling over" post.
The rebound from 63.16 to 66.10+ was a sharp rally. I'm trying to re-short at 66.5-67-68 area.
timwest
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Correction: 63.36 low yesterday
A-shot
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Was the last 8 a selling signal? Also, how are these numbers decided (i.e. 17?)?
timwest
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I banked at 63.58 today. Fast profits could mean much more downside potential. Stay tuned.
JamesPowell
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AS to methods there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.
~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
Hi Tim. I love stealing your charts. LOL That NEM chart you put up was a good one.
I know you know lots of people in the trading business etc. Did you ever know anyone that actually worked on a trade desk at an exchange? Not on the floor like we used to see on TV all the time. Someone that actually worked at a desk facilitating real orders. I ask because i wonder how they did business. Did they use all these "tools" etc like we do etc. I would really be interested to know.
timwest
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Thanks for the compliments James. I worked orders upstairs on an equity block trading desk for SG Warburg (now UBS) for almost five years. We executed orders over the course of the day for our best customers. We would facilitate large block orders at a premium or a discount by taking the other side of their trade and then hedge with other stocks in the group or with stock index futures. We were a team of many traders working together to manage substantial positions. This was from 1990-1995.
JamesPowell
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so that was a bank right? How did that work? If you got an order to 1000 FB at a specific price and one of your team members had an order to buy 2000 FB at the same price did yall just cross the orders and send the other 1000 to the exchange?
timwest
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Hi again James - Your question requires a long answer - but essentially it "depends" on the customer and the costs of crossing shares off-exchange. Many customers only wanted their shares to trade on the NYSE. But if we had a buyer and a seller of a block, >10,000 shares, then we would go to the floor and it takes an experienced broker to figure out how to put the print on the tape. If other orders are there, they took preference. We were dealing in 1/8's and 1/4's back then, and not pennies, so it was much more complicated.