The break of the up trend line (thin) after the divergence is the sign that the trend is reversing and the main trend is now the downtrend. (the previous divergence analysis on this chart : tradingview.com/v/4Lpw2N3r/ )
At the end of the week this pair bounced right at major support 1.289 and i'm expecting a pull back to somewhere around 1.2985-1.3 before continues to go lower.
In the chart above if the pullback scenario can't go beyond 1.3 there's a possible Head and shoulder pattern in this 4h chart that makes the downside target lower than the previously expected. while a break above 1.303/04 (previous minor support) we may have a ranging market with 1.2985-1.304.
Some analysts suggest that this pair may found a selling pressure around 1.301/02
Next week important events are : 1. Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Dec 11 ) 2. Fed Interest Rate Decision ( Dec 12 ) 3. ILO Unemployment Rate ( Dec 12 ) 4. Swiss National Bank Labor Rate Announcement ( Dec 13 ) 5. US Retail Sales ( Dec 13 )
We also have European Council meeting on Dec 13
Comentarios
ellcz
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100 pips drowdown? :D Wow lol.... That can kill your account...
a17nphotography
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100 pips draw down meand i still have 400 pips left in account for another 150-300 pips single trade catch :D
ellcz
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xD... ok :D
a17nphotography
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every time I trade I always make sure that my equity can hold up to 500-1000 pips single trade loss, which I only put 25 pips - 50 pips at risk each entry. :D
ForexTradingRus
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agree with vectors, but Im not sure about levels
StockFxMarket
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if looks your analysis your sure to go down why must reverse in this point ?
a17nphotography
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It's not a must, it's just a possibility by looking at the bullish engulfing pattern on the support there, if it's not reversing i'll still use my divergence target, but IF it reversed and forming a head and shoulder I may have a new target further below.
thanks for the comment.
StockFxMarket
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yes will be nice for short :)
StockFxMarket
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nice analysis,do you think if reverse to bear trend line most of traders or investors expect news must be positive for eurusd and wait this news to break this line and if they expect this is negative news must break bull trend line now ..
petergo99037185
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TO make matters worse the US FOMC meting following on TUE will pressure dollar up intensively, making EURO target AGAIN, a downward forecast!