Now that we are trading back at the lows in the range in EURGBP, the game is roughly level going into ECB today and we can begin to look for positions once more. In a situation which is very similar to the previous flow that we played from the pivot in December.
Continuing to build EUR exposure at 0.885x and looking for ECB & BOE to start diverging in expectations from today onwards. BOE are going to play the whole -ve rate endgame with wonderful precision and genuine artistry. Pound devaluation is the way to go in my opinion.
A quick recap of ECB expectations for today:
> Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher () so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish EUR on inflation , neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual 'watching the currency closely'.
Looking to make use of the 0.885x lows for a move back towards our 0.900x pivot and 0.922x highs.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
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Heads up ... ECB on the wires trying to talk down the euro with an empty threat of cuts to counter appreciation.