This is just a quick post to overview the market macro data.
Yesterday there was a systematic market shock as over-hyped, over-price bull run ran out of steam. People were panicking and speculating right and left. Price was dropping, exchange apps were crashing and ETH even dropped to $700 on Kraken. Not sure if anyone managed to buy at that price level as all exchanges at that moment have crashed. But nevertheless, it is an impressive 24hr drop for ETH from $1970 to $700! Today, at 9am GMT, yet another "crash" where ETH dropped from $1600 to $1360 just in an hour!
Is this a correction? Retrace or are we now in the bear market? There can be lots of debate on how you slide and dice data. At a macro level, BTC "the one that rules them all" usually moves ahead of the market. Altcoins usually are forced to follow. BTC has risen about 200% since December 2020. ETH with a little lag has risen about 220% during the same period. Looking at the raw data one could easily be mistaken that ETH overperformed BTC, however, I would doubt that's the case. Since there is a price lag, market is dictated by BTC and altcoins are much more price-sensitive than BTC I find ETH/USD overlay over BTC/USD to be a good indicator of what is going on in the market. The way I see it is that since 14th of Jan market has been overpriced and the correction was due. Market was overhyped and the higher it rises, the harder it falls. The last two days confirm the change in pattern. A key question remains - what's next?
I have seen all sorts of wild speculations yesterday. The reality is that no one knows. Market is in shock, the pattern has changed, a new baseline needs to form to evaluate what is overpriced and what is underpriced. It is very likely that with today's US open, the price will drop further.
Today's "technicals": The position is - do not freak out. Market will be testing for the bottom and it may drop significantly lower. Forecasted highs are at FOMO. Of course, it is great if you can be glued to the screen, buy the dip at ETH $1355 and sell at $1510 15 mins later. But most won't. There is no mid-way point today to judge what is a good price. Forecasted lows are at FOMO too! I do not believe that ETH will drop below yesterdays ETH $700 for a sustainable period of time. However, there is a massive gap between the current price of ETH $1500 and $700!
Enjoy the FOMO! 🤑🍿
If you would like to have early access to my TA's, make your best guess if it is a Retrace, Correction or are we in a long run Bear Market now!
In my opinion, it was a correction and the market is OK.
It will return to the channel very soon.
And will 2500-2800 in late February.
DataMoney
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@Mohsen_Abbassi, you may be right! Let's see where the market takes us 😉
Mohsen_Abbassi
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@DataMoney, Waiting to see if ETH enter the channel again or it's only a pullback!!
Market_Morph
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We saw this before when it tested a new high @ 1350 I'm expecting at a return to 2000-2100 by March 8. - Retrace!
Thanks for your work! :)
El_Morenito
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it's a retrace at below 30k, it'll bounce up in May with double it's strength, March has always been a bad month for BTC.
paruoooch6
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Will we go to 1300$ ?
DataMoney
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@paruoooch6, It is very likely that we will. The only question is when! At the moment the market is at the breaking point of 1700. Check out my new post:
MCDeane1010
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As you say, it’s difficult to know. The expected correction was a lot longer in gestation than expected, possibly influenced by Mr Musk and his support for Bitcoin. I agree that where Bitcoin goes, ETH will follow but I think the sell off (of those who could) and the wipe out (of those caught without enough leverage/liquidity) over the last 36 hours will provide an opportunity for traders to buy low, knowing these currencies have both had ATH’s recently and can achieve that again. So I think - correction, possibly a few more wobbles down to 1425/1450 before the early markets begin to buy in quantities to push the market higher.
DataMoney
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@MCDeane1010, Why not couple more wobbles to 1300 or 1200?
In my opinion, it was a correction and the market is OK.
It will return to the channel very soon.
And will 2500-2800 in late February.