As I said in my last prediction, the Trump factor has come into play. I do not have a real chart for my next prediction, because I think a lot of whats going on at the moment is based on world events and not technical analysis. Trump just declared trade war on China, while the EU accused Russia of attacking European soil with chemical weapons. How did the DAX react? Sure, it fell, but then again, not really. The support line from the summer of last year seems to be holding. China has responded very calmly so far - and will probably remain so. Russia has also been very calm with the whole spy poisoning crisis. Put together, the DAX has lost a lot of ground in February and again, gave the bulls a scare in March. Meanwhile, EU and German data ist good. The DAX wants to be going up, perhaps not to a new all time high, but towards the 13000 line. The fundementals keep knocking it down, but as soon as they set the DAX free, I expect it to bounce off the black support line above as if it were a trampoline. So my trade is:
DAX Call Option Bought at 11900 Stop-loss at 11750 Take profit - not sure yet
Good luck.
Operación activa
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Excuse the lie above. The black line is, of course, the low in March, not last summer. The last summer low is a tad higher. The 11750 stoploss covers both.
Comentarios
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Sorry for the absence the last few days. I ignored my stop loss and decided to stay in. I did buy too early at 11900 and people do keep telling me to stop trying to catch a falling knife, but I keep doing it anyways. Either way, it looks like the Chinese and EU are talking to the US, so hopefully that will keep everyone busy. The DAX does not like being this low and will take any reason to rally. If we can avoid bad news, the DAX should move upwards.
I still havent decided what to do with the long weekend. On one hand, if nothing happens, the markets are likely to open quite a bit higher on Tuesday. On the other hand, its four days opportunity for a DAX-Killer tweet from Trump. Feel free to comment...
Operación cerrada manualmente
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Due to the nice development of the DAX today, I am going to take profit and not worry about risk the next 4 days. Sold at 12.100.
I believe what you wrote is true, and I was watching the market when it fell through your stop loss yesterday. Seeing yesterdays' recovery in the evening and watching from today, I was wondering if you might have altered your stop loss or perhaps entered another long position? ( since your prediction seems to be looking good so far).
DAX-Trader
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@KristaSnoeck, yes, sorry, I didnt have much time to be on tradingview the last few days. Yes, I ended up ignoring my own stop loss. I was going to buy more at the 11700 level, but it did not go that low. I am still confident that we are going to go up. The major indicies did a good job weather all the choatic news of the last few days and we are now at the point where no news is enough to send the DAX upwards.