#bitcoin bull bear watch don't get caught out. A new take on signals I've been following much of 2018.
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Here's what my previous chart looked like
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This is why market has got to get above that 200 MA.
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I'm a little worried about a potential crash this week like towards end of March futures.
I did some other charts which were looking positive till the above signal was confirmed and I wondered how best it could interpreted (what tools to use) and traded.
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Here's my worry.
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Above chart is worst case scenario.
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Another study of worst case scenario
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Including Aroon
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If there's time for a retrace
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Price broke through 20 MA on the downside so what next ? Any big whale short of oxygen ?
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Interesting observation
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Market pushing up but keeping trap in mind obviously
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Same interest as above but combining Ichimoku Cloud
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Just a wider view of the above with some features edited out etc.
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Looks 50/50 between bulls and bears right now. I've taken futures expiry and found what appears like a good price pattern match.
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Update with Ichimoku Cloud etc
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Just a note about the chart above. That green square just above where is says "Head" in the bottom left of chart should not be there - it's just a left over from something else that I was checking out.
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Potential H & S maybe otherwise still looks 50/50 between bulls and bears.
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H & S still 50/50
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Still 50/50. Here's another study of first chart at the top.
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Here is larger version
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Started 1st October heading for top of box.
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Just published a new post "#crypto #bitcoin bull bear using Aroon (Experimental)" with the following comment:
Bull pushing higher and WOW if they can only break new highs would be fantastic. Here's a worry but bear in mind that it's only experimental. If all patterns are just consolidation areas in a much larger picture then at some point all patterns break up - break out of a box. This study is not intended to supersede any previous study. Bitcoin -0.16% still looks 50/50 ew and currently with a bullish bias. Needs to break into new highs for loads of reasons as everything else appears to be pointing down.
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Holding up so far so good
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Can bulls fight back
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Have posted a new study
#bitcoin TO THE MOON exclusive here's a new BULL side argument
Note: All studies 50/50 till they break out of some box.
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Interesting. Volatility of the first day of the month always and interesting play in first eleven days. Usual 50/50 bull or bear. Can break out in one direction, or, whipsaw. Which is it going to be this time. Hmmmm.
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Chart from my latest post. See post for construction details.
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If bulls can hold do you see on the chart below what a beautiful moon could mean?
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Waiting...............
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In the chart below I'm thinking that for price to have bottomed on the weekly chart do we also need to make a consecutive weekly Williams Fractal low. Maybe a higher weekly high now could be one step nearer to getting it done quickly. $6,921.4 is a 61.8 retrace. I've gone for a bit lower.
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Here's what I mean
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Based on my TO THE MOON study posted 2nd October we also got consecutive daily low in the first example reproduced again below
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How useful are consecutive daily fractal lows at identifying lows. Well maybe once a year? Have marked them in white in the chart below. Didn't check for sure in detail but does look like at least one of them managed to catch each yearly low.
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My latest post which is an update of an older study "bitcoin bulls could surprise & surpass expectation 50/50"
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Bigger picture
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Watching
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Watching bigger
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Whatever you use or create on a chart not all of them will create value for a repeatable trading strategy, however, being able to see the position of the many patterns (or a single pattern) on a chart like halfway through a game of chess may just help identify or perfect new ones. In this study below I was interested in creating patterns (just triangles) in between different coloured Aroon bars. Like between 100 of one colour to the 100 of the next, including to where the next colour first rises above the previous. Once complete i edited out all those I didn't think were useful, and to see what conditions may continue to support the view that bitcoin had bottomed, etc....
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More studies
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I think I may have discovered the secret to the next big buy/sell signal. Will be watching how this chart develops.
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Big question if histogram goes lower than yesterday 7th Oct, in which case I would add the final green vertical to my chart, and the RSI goes below that of the first green vertical of 49.8317 would that be a buy signal.
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(Update) Question if histogram ends lower than 9th Oct, in which case would add the final green vertical to my chart, and RSI ends below first green vertical of 49.8317 would that be a buy signal. The green and purple DNA of the Histogram matches two other recent occasions but they signalled tops.
You will find all of my bull and bear arguments in my post 24th September "#bitcoin bull bear watch don't get caught out".
Has bitcoin bottomed?
I think we could be about to find out today unless price rises back up, or, need review.
I have boxed in some primary areas of interest to me for comparing recent past, and added below extra photo's for comparison with previous examples.
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The RSI did not end below 49.8317. Therefore, the above observation does not help with a bullish argument.
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#bitcoin fractal patterns same as December but with a twist
Here's my latest observation, and below comparing December's example. 50/50 price finds support and my to the moon charts/arguments remain intact. Some of my bearish charts/arguments still have 50/50 chance too.
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#bitcoin could rebound tomorrow thanks to gold price leap
Here is the daily chart of gold 2.50% 2.09% and bitcoin -4.80% -4.83% . Notice my use of Aroon 1 (blue) 11 (brown). Notice the correlation with Bitcoin -4.80% -4.83% when brown Aroon hits 100. Have boxed in volatility to nearest Blue Aroon at 100. The Aroon is done using the Gold 2.50% 2.09% chart. I've superimposed the brown Aroon on bitcoin -4.80% for better clarity.
Note that move could also be short lived to just one day, or, none at all. 3rd March didn't work well at all. Looks quite good at catching bitcoin -4.80% at point of rebound. All ideas 50/50
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Looking good so far
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From my latest post "bitcoin another bullish argument/chart for the bulls". A new study to add to the many I've done. Used CCI in log scale which revealed some interesting insight because all year these are the only two occasions with this much and the same amount of choppiness . The last time it was bullish . Could it repeat. My only worry at the minute is that my last key signal was bearish .
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GREAT NEWS FOR BULLS
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Another bullish observation
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Most of my charts till 14th October 2018 are on this thread.
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Just for fun it's not often that Bollinger band width has been so narrow and had wondered how to get a look in and compare with the past. I picked all the points with narrow bandwidth lower than today. I then chose a 78 day MA because it was closest to the top band of the Bollinger and looked back to find the closest match. Below are my results.
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WHOOPS MISSED OUT THE IMPORTANT BIT TO THE ABOVE POST.
Just for fun it's not often that Bollinger band width has been so narrow and had wondered how to get a look in and compare with the past. I picked all the points with narrow bandwidth lower than today. I then chose a 78 day MA because it was closest to the top band of the Bollinger and looked back to find the closest match. Below are my results.
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This is probably going to be my final update on this thread
While waiting for the market to confirm some new fractals I thought to keep busy. Here is a follow up on my above study of Bollinger band width which had become so narrow. I found two best fits (using "psychological" profiling) in the above study and wondered whether could take it up another notch. I decided to use Stoch (K at 200) and Stoch RSI (RSI and Stoch both at 200) to log scale and WOW did I get a surprising result. Enjoy. Remember always 50/50 no matter how convincing.
(NOTE: When I did the FIB's I did not use the 2014 Low - didn't think it would make much difference and was such a one off event)