It's been interesting to say the least since Sept 13th. As we have always stated trading corrections can be extremely difficult even for the best traders. The irony is as many times as I have changed my path have come back to almost my original theory on how the correction would happen. The only difference is the extended top. I've seen other counts out there that bend the rules and or seem valid but this one has been the one is the one that met the basic three rules for EW and why I stuck with it even though I've modified it along the way. But with BTG' behind us and B2X' appearing to lose momentum, the path originally laid out may have been the correct one to begin with. Of course we did not expect the extended top which is pretty rare. Now this by no means states we can not go higher from here, and I'm sure we will get a little surge in the next few days, but as long as $6250 is held I'm feeling confident we are bound to correct from our long term run.
Fundamentals - Bitcoin Gold went over like a lead rock. Immediately they were met with a DDoS attack. Even Trevor issued a warning that Bitcoin gold was not safe and the code was not finished. This is not good and shows lack of planning and a rush to get a coin to market before insuring the safety and work-ability of a system. For this the get a big fat F. Litecoin immediately had a pop in price, but this has subsequently subsided as there is still confusion as to what may or may not happen. For this reason I still feel Litcoin is not tradeable (but you can add here). I like direction, and right now there is none and Bitcoin gold is a competitor to both litecoin and Dash.
This leads us to the second fork Segwit2x. Well here we are starting to see some conflicts among the miners as well, with 21% of companies supporting it and 21% of companies against it with the remaining undecided. For good reason, look at the roll out of Bitcoin gold, talk about a flop. coin.dance/poli We also mentioned that Bitcoin Cash has already resolved many of the issues that both bitcoin gold and the segwit2x are attempting to resolve. My question is, why not leave a good thing alone? Bitcoin cash addressed the scaling issue, is faster, and is even cheaper than litecoin when it comes to fees? So what does Segwit2x provide? I think many will start thinking, do we really want to dilute risk this for little reward ?
So this takes us to the chart. And though many think I've been bearish forever, I'm really not. I think long term Bitcoin is going up from here, but corrections are necessary in markets as they bring in fresh money to invest. We are not seeing any fresh money enter the space, at least in the amounts required to drive prices higher. We have lost 5% of the overall market cap in the past few days and we are still down close to 25% if you remove Bitcoin. For those new to investing this is NOT a bull market, quite the opposite it is a bear market.
What do we do in bear markets. Well after 30 years of watching markets, I have come to one conclusion. Cash is King and it' time for bargain hunting. Just like a rising tide raises all ships, low tides lower them. We have been buying the likes of NEO' and OMG', We have added to BCH' recently as well as ETH', DASH' and XRP'. Good quality coins in my opinion that are trading off their highs. Why would I be looking to buy BTC' at it's high in an overall market correction? I've even looked at buying a few other coins like LSK' QTUM' and CVC' to add to the speculative portfolio. (just a few bucks nothing to go all in on). This is where patience and money management pays off. I've seen the best TA's get caught in bad trades. I do not want to be one, so I will just wait patiently and continue to look for deals. Those few hundred dollars lost could be worth 10's of thousands in a few years and I'm not risking it.
So I still have my core position of BTC, but I'm not adding until we get a better price around $3500.
Fundamentals - Bitcoin Gold went over like a lead rock. Immediately they were met with a DDoS attack. Even Trevor issued a warning that Bitcoin gold was not safe and the code was not finished. This is not good and shows lack of planning and a rush to get a coin to market before insuring the safety and work-ability of a system. For this the get a big fat F. Litecoin immediately had a pop in price, but this has subsequently subsided as there is still confusion as to what may or may not happen. For this reason I still feel Litcoin is not tradeable (but you can add here). I like direction, and right now there is none and Bitcoin gold is a competitor to both litecoin and Dash.
This leads us to the second fork Segwit2x. Well here we are starting to see some conflicts among the miners as well, with 21% of companies supporting it and 21% of companies against it with the remaining undecided. For good reason, look at the roll out of Bitcoin gold, talk about a flop. coin.dance/poli We also mentioned that Bitcoin Cash has already resolved many of the issues that both bitcoin gold and the segwit2x are attempting to resolve. My question is, why not leave a good thing alone? Bitcoin cash addressed the scaling issue, is faster, and is even cheaper than litecoin when it comes to fees? So what does Segwit2x provide? I think many will start thinking, do we really want to dilute risk this for little reward ?
So this takes us to the chart. And though many think I've been bearish forever, I'm really not. I think long term Bitcoin is going up from here, but corrections are necessary in markets as they bring in fresh money to invest. We are not seeing any fresh money enter the space, at least in the amounts required to drive prices higher. We have lost 5% of the overall market cap in the past few days and we are still down close to 25% if you remove Bitcoin. For those new to investing this is NOT a bull market, quite the opposite it is a bear market.
What do we do in bear markets. Well after 30 years of watching markets, I have come to one conclusion. Cash is King and it' time for bargain hunting. Just like a rising tide raises all ships, low tides lower them. We have been buying the likes of NEO' and OMG', We have added to BCH' recently as well as ETH', DASH' and XRP'. Good quality coins in my opinion that are trading off their highs. Why would I be looking to buy BTC' at it's high in an overall market correction? I've even looked at buying a few other coins like LSK' QTUM' and CVC' to add to the speculative portfolio. (just a few bucks nothing to go all in on). This is where patience and money management pays off. I've seen the best TA's get caught in bad trades. I do not want to be one, so I will just wait patiently and continue to look for deals. Those few hundred dollars lost could be worth 10's of thousands in a few years and I'm not risking it.
So I still have my core position of BTC, but I'm not adding until we get a better price around $3500.
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Entering a critical RSI level which when broken the last three times BTC retraced to the 0.615 level. I color coded it ;)
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Interesting that the long and short futures are not correlating with each other. Make of it what you want but this appears to me a trend change is coming.
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For those of you thinking of shorting as we are testing the 60RSI level I would recommend reading MarcPmarkets post a few minutes ago. I have the utmost respect for Marc as he has been trading on wallstreet since the 90's and is probably one of the most experienced chart readers you will ever come across. He has traded through several bubbles with wall street firms and his experience is second to none on TV.
