BTC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM

5 dic 2021

BTC dropped way too hard down to the 41,000$ region. The reasons for its downfall and intense volatility are:

• The drop was caused by outside forces such as the stock market job reports, tapering and omicron which greatly concerned bullish sentiment.
  
  
• The drop was caused by manipulation as well, since the liquidity in the upper region was too little and that shorts are no longer pushing the price further up or maintaining it. The sell-off was to enhance liquidity in the short term, however due to multiple "OVERLEVERAGED LONG" positions, this sent the price further down.
  
  
• The sudden increase from 41k to 49k was not the bullish sentiment, but buy orders being filled to temporarily raise the value of the assets in the short term.
  

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WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

• The buy orders that got filled will now be in profit and since the 200 Day Moving Average is around 50-52k, that will already serve as our resistance, and since we are below it we can speculate that people, in preparation for a future accumulation phase, will now take profit from that huge volatility from 41k to 49k which will now send the price down as continuation further enhancing the fear towards the market unnecessarily.
  
  
• Those people that profited from an early buy order to an early take profit around the 49k range will cause retail investors/traders in the amateur level to get out of the market (or take really bad long positions that will fuel a further downturn) which is reflected as "Extreme Fear" from the Fear and Greed index.
  
  
• One can find soft supports in both 47k region and 40-42k regions. The last heavy support we are "depending on" to hold the bullish sentiment intact is the 37.5k price point. Anything below the 37.5k price point is considered a BEAR MARKET since that price point will now serve as RESISTANCE.
  

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WHAT IS THE BEST PLAY IN THE MARKET RIGHT NOW?

• For really patient investors, one can use Dollar Cost Averaging as their primary method against the potential downturn "WITH" respectable buy points, you do NOT buy at every down turn of 1% as this will negatively skew your efficiency in maximizing your profits and financial management.
  
  
• For casual investors, one can also use Dollar Cost Averaging or wait for the price to settle in a convincing accumulative consolidation range with confirmation of a strong green candle.
  
  
• For technical traders, since we are below the 200 Day Moving Average, one should find "SHORTS" more commonly appealing in the market than "LONGS" in the short term, but it doesn't mean you should be BIASED on that approach.