Monthly MACD momentum shifts are very, very good at helping us find local tops and bottoms for BTCUSD. Despite all the bearishness, we may actually be in for a short-term rally over the next month. Who's willing to bet that even a GROWING CPI would not stop this momentum shift? I almost feel as though the CPI is a bit of a red herring. I'm excited to see what happens, though. There are several events on the horizon: >The ETH 2.0 Merge (no sharding yet! sad...) >The BTC Halving in 2024 >The CPI print tomorrow >Ukraine fighting back Russia (will they successfully push them back?) >European energy crisis (some nations are prepared, others are seemingly doomed for the Winter) >BTC ETF is always a possibility, especially as time goes on >China/Taiwan tensions >China Real Estate collapse >US Real Estate potential bubble popping >DXY topping out
Very very interesting times, despite the pain I feel in my wallet!
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Note: meant to say "next months"* not "next month." Looks like we also dumped before the merge. Particularly because today, CPI is down, but it's not down as far as the market wanted it to be? Such a finicky market! Some say that this means the merge will dump even harder (Buy the rumor, sell the news). While I'm all for cheaper ETH, I'm not completely sold on the exact timeline of this dump being precisely on the day of the merge? Unless perhaps the merge fails or something unexpected happens. That would be interesting for sure.
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Clarification: Just as the monthly MACD didn't show the top for the bull market, it just as well may not show the bottom for the bear market. So be careful, this isn't a bottom calling indicator per se, it's more of a momentum shift indicator. We may even fall to 13k as so many are calling for, but overall, so long as 1-Month MACD 2 weeks from now shifts momentum, we can expect this general area of 20k-10k or so to be the bottom, and to expect upside from here in terms of a large, yearly swing trade. Glad you guys are finding value in this idea, even if you're bearish! I'm also pretty bearish, but I also can admit that this is a great price range to Dollar Cost Average into if one can afford it.
The candle is not closed yet. we still have 2 more weeks. But its pretty cool for MACD to react that way to price. Good Catch!
florasora
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@darrenlall, Yeah, my thoughts exactly. Still waiting for candle close! But it is looking promising, and I don't regret checking out the monthly MACD. What a nice indicator for this chart. o.o Also, thank you.
SwallowPremium
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We believe bearish movement as well currently, but thanks for sharing!
florasora
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@SwallowPremium, For sure, I'm overall bearish in terms of not seeing a long bull market for some time. But I am foreseeing a short-term rally within the coming months. No guarantees, but I'm actually loving how consistent the monthly MACD is looking. Still waiting for candle close nonetheless! So I could totally be wrong 2 weeks from now.
Yelli_trades
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pretty bearish for me right now , thanks for your work
florasora
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@DemoDiaryFX_Trading I'm also relatively bearish macro wise, but I also think market sentiment could start to shift any moment this year or next year. So I'm DCAing.
florasora
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@DemoDiaryFX_Trading Thoughts?
Yelli_trades
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@florasora, my thoughts are here basically, nothing to add
and here from minute 9
florasora
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@DemoDiaryFX_Trading, Wow, seeing oil fall that hard would certainly be interesting. I wonder how countries like those in Europe who need energy would react. Mass gas burning? Very interesting. Also seeing 800 dollar ETH would be spectacular.
Yelli_trades
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@florasora, I'm not that sure for OIL but I give high probability for 800 for ETH