Be careful of bitcoin as its reaching a point where it is most likely going to break outside its parabolic envelope to the downside entering a longer term downtrend of several months.
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Since the text font was so small, here's a copy of what it says to make it more readable.
Left Side: "So far we've maintained the parabolic envelope retesting within its parameters since $1000. However, we are now at a point that will push us outside the envelope to retest the last ATH.
When this happens and we go outside the curve, the historical trend in bitcoin is a prolonged bear market with a 50-60% retracement."
Right Side: "retest is outside parabolic curve likely leading to large retracement likely breaking 5k support and going sideways for several months"
Top Comment: "potential upside max $500"
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When I initially charted this out, I forgot to switch to a log chart, as @cryptonetti pointed out below. In a log chart, the target range for hitting the upper curve of the parabolic envelope would be higher. Perhaps a $10,000 target, rather than the $8500 the non-log chart showed, which is obviously a large difference. Thanks to Cryptonetti for pointing that out and setting me straight ;)
everyone knows that there will be a substantial price reversal if not even a crash, thats no secret. but it's impossible to say exactly when this happens, could be 6 months or 2 years. that its happening exactly now, at a point in the present, is highly unlikely, not for technical reasons. bitcoin is being traded in the stock exchanges, there will be futures and etfs, and much more financial products, not because the bitcoin is a really new innovation, but because of its ever rising price and thats the only reason. bitcoin is an indicator for greed and nothing else in fact. if the price declines there will be no more reason for the bigger investors especially, to pump more and more money into the bitcoin market, so logically it will only happen after the bitcoin is publicly sold as financial product to everyone, and only after that the real practical value of the bitcoin will show, its not the blockchain but a financial product and of course the banks and investors, that initially advised not to trade bitcoin because of dark markets or hackers, bought that in order to generate value out of nothing, only for the sake of opportunity, and of course, on the big stock exchanges this is forbidden to make business like that, not in the bitcoin exchanges, that is why it is even happening there. no laws have been made and someone pays the price later, but some never learn from history. the current value is far from the actual value. if you ask me, 1000 dollars is already far too much, but thats just some random value, but the current value is also just some random value. no one can say whats a fair price and yes bitcoin got many problems. if you cant really say where the price is going you should probably better stop trading it and start trading some value where you actually can say where it might go, like the dow or nasdaq or whatever, bitcoin is somehow not so different from a penny stock. just my opinion
Nice call :/. Another ridiculous bear call. As long as people desperately attempt to call tops, bitcoin bull trend will continue. Bulls love shorts, it feeds them and makes them grow stronger.
TenaciousJ
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@windjc, Go long then, by all means. I'm just presenting the facts as I see them.
windjc
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@TenaciousJ, bitcoin is up another $300 since your call. Where’s your stop loss?
bedarija
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correction is overdue since 2015 so stop calling correction after every ATH. people were calling it hwen BTC was 7k now its 8.2k. its december, so your theory about BTC going down for several months is way wrong, cehck historical data what happens to BTC in december
TenaciousJ
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@bedarija, If you look at historical data you'll see this parabolic move and subsequent correction of 50-60% happens at a predictable point on the parabola every single time it happens. Whether it's December or not has nothing to do with what the market does, any correlation you draw from the month of the year is entirely coincidental. Betting on moves because its December is going to be about as accurate as planning your life around your astrological chart.
jwboing
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I am watching this post carefully since I cleared my position at 7950 believing as you do that we will go down.
However, out of FOMO I am ready to buy back in at a bit of a loss if things change around.
Last ATH I sold near the high and bought back in putting me 300 to profit, so I am using that as a spread to get back in.
So to keep it clean that would put me back in at 8250. I feel very comfortable staying out till then, but will get a bit nervous if it rises higher than that.
Thank you for your post and please keep current.
Thanks JW
heisginger
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@jwboing, as a rule, never short bitcoin! Well maybe if the FUD is at horrendous levels, or there are real issues (exchange attack, crisis of confidence, etc) that . Otherwise, you are likely to lose your shirt, or not be able to afford to buy back in... right now, there's not much in the way of 10k IMHO
luckysteem
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If we see your picture and lines then there is not 500 max. Maybe at this momenr but i can see there is still room for more