Why Bitcoin must break down to break up. Bitcoin needs to create a new pattern
I've been meaning to to do a long term update for BTC for sometime now. This is strictly the message straight out of the book of Richard W. Schabacker (Father of Classical Charting Principles) Right triangles, are robust patterns that usually indicate a continuing trend after a declining trading range runs its course. They can occur regardless of the length or duration of a trend, but a trend must always be present. They are usually accompanied by contracting volume that suddenly increases as they break through the resistance or support levels formed by the base of the triangle. How far the price is going to move cannot be precisely measured, but there are methods that can give you a reasonable target price, especially when technical indicators are also used.
"Right triangles, are robust patterns that usually indicate a continuing trend after a declining trading range runs its course. They can occur regardless of the length or duration of a trend, but a trend must always be present. They are usually accompanied by contracting volume that suddenly increases as they break through the resistance or support levels formed by the base of the triangle. How far the price is going to move cannot be precisely measured, but there are methods that can give you a reasonable target price, especially when technical indicators are also used." - Bruce Tintelnot
This pattern we are seeing in Bitcoin is nothing new and well documented. We need to break The Trend to go up. Most likely will break the yearly support forming and creating a new pattern. There will be bounces along the way, we may even retest $7100 but further declines are most likely. I believe probably have a dead bounce around $5400 and find our bottom between $5100-$4295. I'll be layering my buy orders all the way down.
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I would also like to credit Excavo for posting a similar idea.
Operación activa
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Hopefully we find a bounce here somewhere.
Operación activa
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Which breaks first, support or resistance?
Comentarios
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Operación activa
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Still stuck in the range here between a support and a resistance. The ruling on Crypto that comes out of India should be interesting.
Nice post Jeff. Hard to argue with your logic. The minute new 2018 lows are created, we may see a $200-$300 DC bounce, then a crash to around $5,450. This would be the first layer of support I could see a POSSIBLE reversal happening...but I highly doubt it. From there, I’m looking at $5,000 psychological for support. If that breaks, I think a VERY quick drop to $4,600-$4,400 is likely. I have trouble seeing how it goes below that support...at least not by more than a quick wick on the daily.
At that point, everyone will be saying bitcoin is dead and crypto was a “passing fad”. Everyone that’s currently calling for a $3,000 bitcoin will look like geniuses...and all of retail will agree. $3,000 will feel inevitable. I think that’s when we’ll see a massive wick on the daily from $4,500 to MAYBE just below 4K...and then an explosion like we’ve never seen. Anyway...great post and analysis. We’ll know soon enough.
@workin2005, this is a very likely scenario in my opinion. although I see a huge resistance at 6000 - 6200 once the price touched the 3000 - 4000 price area. I'm looking forward to your feedback.
CryptoRaven
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@Bavo_De_Bondt, it has a great support @ 6000/6200 but as someone said, same amount of money can't hold it up 6000 forever
roxygenate
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I tend to agree. We are likely to break 2018 market structure. If the last bear market of 2014 is any indication, we will break it soon. In 2014, we broke right around this time in Sept. I know that 2014 had MTGox and was different fundamentals. But the percentage price movements were eerily similar to this year.
Bavo_DB
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Good analysis with a high possibility to become a reality! Why do you point out 13 October as breaking point?
achtung360
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@Bavo_De_Bondt, The date on the chart is hard to predict when will fall from this pattern, its just a guess, could happen in 72 hours. I laugh with people I trade with about how 1 hour in this market is 24 hours in any other market. Thank you for the feedback once the market changes direction and build up my following here I'll feel more comfortable posting alt coin charts. Right now they are continuously being put in (price discovery) and too risky.
frupreneur
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Great TA as always man. and i agree, thought as much some weeks back.
At that point, everyone will be saying bitcoin is dead and crypto was a “passing fad”. Everyone that’s currently calling for a $3,000 bitcoin will look like geniuses...and all of retail will agree. $3,000 will feel inevitable. I think that’s when we’ll see a massive wick on the daily from $4,500 to MAYBE just below 4K...and then an explosion like we’ve never seen. Anyway...great post and analysis. We’ll know soon enough.