Lock in profits, an inevitable capitulation is upon us, short after short trade setup. Yet the market continues to grind higher. Seriously taking a short position into an overly crowded short trade? Just look at the strength of the weekly candle that just took out the previous highs. Yes clearly a short signal here! A few that read my article this morning may notice a slight difference in my wave count and I updated the chart so I apologize for the mistake, yet nothing has changed. There is still a lot of green pastures ahead on the chart I am in no rush to lock in profits here. Quite the contrary, I am looking to buy the dip.
Keep in mind this is for position trading and or investing, not swing trading so please don't make me bring out the "Trolls be gone high power spray" addition of Bug Spray. You know those that continue to mock long term strategies that were, and still are, clinging to their hopes of capitulation.
Despite all the hoopla going on, the weekly chart is still very bullish. Not even a sign of a bearish signal. As I mentioned earlier, taking profits too soon can result in heartache of watching an equity continue to move higher. I even saw recently where that guy has yet posted again, for the third time "take some profits here", and I mentioned, this is the 3rd time you posted that, do you even have any inventory to sell? Of course his response was, this was our third target. Ohhh brother, well even if this is true, Bitcoin continues to move higher, and his bag is on empty.
There is nothing wrong with taking profits, but clearly the chart is strong, and there is still a lot of green pastures ahead. We have not even hit the lower primary resistance level or the 38.2% retrace of the overall bearish swing at $9700. So why would I take profits here? Heck I am looking to add on any dip, not get rid of the inventory I accumulated at lower prices. Especially with longer term targets of 15-25k. I'm not saying we get there this year, but over the next couple, a good chance.
But what about the short term?
Trend still in tact, nice bullish momentum continuation setup on the daily. Even the dip yesterday was bought up quicker than swamp cabbage and deep fried Twinkies at the county fair. So tell me again why this is a short here, or why I should take profits?
Even if we pullback to the trend line, I will be looking to buy on a reversal, and the reason is simple. As a long term investor, trying to sell every rally and buy back in on every dip is going to have you missing out on broader moves. I just look to buy the dips, especially when it is a long term hold and in the midst of broader 3rd wave cycles. It can also put you in a position of owing taxes at the end of the year, that negate any potential gains. You can't claim the loss of a losing trade, but must claim the gains of every winning one with this type of strategy. There is the 60 day rule, but a lot can happen in that time. This works against you if you are subject to capital gains taxes, which most of us are.
In closing there is still a lot of room to run in the broader term and trying to time every dip and blip, unless you are the perfect timer, will have you chasing eventually. The simple plan is just buy the dip and look at levels above 10k to start taking off some profits. I mean technically 15k is the area where trimming would be valid, as there is the potential of the broader wave "V" getting to 25-35k. I mean seriously if it does get there, will it matter if you bought at 3500 to 8k?
Don't over think the chart, don't get caught up in all the bull crap indicators, oscillators and MA's that really have little meaning. Do not make long term holdings short term trades. If you believe we retest the highs over the next couple years there is simply no reason to sell here. There is simply no need to chase greener pastures when the path is so open ahead.
This does not exclude purposeful swing and position trades that have targets. Different Animal, different strategy. This does not include more risky alt coins where you want to take profits when you can not when you have to. For the trolls once again, I am talking about Long Term Investing, and yes if you look to the right when you publish on TV it says "investment strategy".
You can't cheat gravity or skip time, right?
Likewise, the market will work its course without taking the shortcut wishes of individuals (wishful thinking) into consideration.
It won't skip anything for the sake of some people's wishful thinking, like "the bottom is already in".
Make no mistake.
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to get, and a time to lose. A time to keep, and a time to cast away.
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together.
What I make of it:
Now it's a time to cast away stones, not a time to gather stones together.
goldbug1
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@ReallyMe, Thank you Really, always appreciate your comments, but is there a reason to sell here other than it is moving higher? I used to get that early on, "ohh its gone to far to fast need to sell" only to see it move higher. Strong charts are strong charts and this is still a strong one! Again thank you for the alternate opinion and view. Always good to have alternate views.
ReallyMe
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@goldbug1, Thanks. To explain briefly: I believe the true bottom will be reached when red MA has crossed green MA. Not earlier. As in July 2015, the situation today is that the price has risen above the green line. The main difference to 2015, however, is that red and green are not yet flattened (they are quite steep) and still far apart from each other. Since the daily RSI is deep in the overbought territory, the Bitcoin price will fall below the two curves next (as in 2015). However, given the greater distance between red and green, it will take some time for the price to settle and the curves to flatten. That's why I believe we have plenty of time to reach the "true bottom". Until then, many things can happen. I would not be surprised if Bitcoin makes a new low in the coming months.
It is just my current view (also explained in my last idea). Of course I could be wrong. We will see. Good luck for all.
dalmazio
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@ReallyMe, not sure about Bitcoin making a new low, but I hear you. I do expect retesting of recent lows before any bull cycle can get on in earnest. It's just the way of markets. Smart money wants to make sure there are proper floors in place to support large bull moves without having to give it all back at the slightest bad news. Plus crypto is particularly volatile, so retesting lows/supports is essential. FYI, here is another analysis along the lines you've described which is quite good:
ReallyMe
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@dalmazio, Right, I agree with your arguments and the reasoning.
As for a lower low, I think that in the case of a retrace and retest we will have a pronounced A-B-C correction and you know that Wave C normally ends below A before the next Wave 1 ("bull-run") will begin. That's why.
UnknownUnicorn3394555
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Bears are F**-ed
agent474
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That's an interesting idea, but I still think that we have to retrace before the savage bull run. Check out perfect fractal analysis:
Jolgan
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Careful here
BorisPoff
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The voice of reason. The one with ears shall hear.
Likewise, the market will work its course without taking the shortcut wishes of individuals (wishful thinking) into consideration.
It won't skip anything for the sake of some people's wishful thinking, like "the bottom is already in".
Make no mistake.
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to get, and a time to lose. A time to keep, and a time to cast away.
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together.
What I make of it:
Now it's a time to cast away stones, not a time to gather stones together.