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Quick update, without the normal comprehensive TA. What I think is most important right now is the Bitcoin Market Cap Dominance (BTC.D). This is my main indicator to identify alt seasons vs salt seasons. The best alt seasons happen when: BTC is in a bull market and market cap dominance is > 70%. Conversely when market cap dominance is less than 60% it is usually a good indicator to sell alts.
The target from the bull flag is 77%.
Furthermore I think this is a very strong confirmation of a bottom in Bitcoin. Throughout this bear market any time BTC has pumped, alts have pumped more. Now we are seeing BTC pump and alts sell off vs BTC. This is exactly what we saw at the beginning of the 2016 bull market. This combined with the EMA's starting to signal a reversal has me sitting up in my seat.
That being said I am not viewing this as an opportunity to buy BTC. We are at resistance and well overdue for a correction. Instead what I've been doing is shorting ETH:BTC and longing ETH:USD as a hedge. If BTC continues going up then alts should continue selling off vs BTC but not necessarily USD. If BTC goes down then alts should selloff across the board and I will exit my ETH:USD long. If all works out then I can use the ETH:BTC short to hedge BTC spot purchase(s) when it eventually corrects.
Hopefully that all makes sense, if not feel free to ask questions!
not entirely sure I understand. so when BTC market cap dominance is high and bull market (the latter has to be ensured somehow first of course, hard enough to time this well) its a good point to buy alts? and what is expected then, this ration to stay this way throughout the bull market? decreasing in favour or alts over time? if it stays that high then I wonder how alt prices should actually make more gains than BTC (taken all together) if they cant then Id wonder why to buy alts in the first place.
would it be possible for you to lay out more btc / alt ratio scenarios according through time development? e.g. beginning of bull market, BTC dominance at ~XX%, alts at XX%. after that slow development/ratio remains/etc. BTC to XX%, alts XX%. then it could happen they develope like XX% and XX% or not. towards the end of a bull market BTC dominance increases/decreases further, while alts go XX%.
and so on. would make it a bit easier to understand.
Sawcruhteez
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@moviestar, I think you understand correctly based on your first sentence. When BTC in bull market and BTC market cap dominance is >70% then it is the ideal time to buy alts (based on prior cycles). When market cap dominance is < 40% it is a great time to short alts vs BTC and / or trade alts into BTC. This chart should help you visualize / understand the concept a little better.
On March 6th 2017 BTC was in a full on bull market (I use MA's to determine trend) and the dominance was at 84%. 6 weeks later it had fallen to 37% and that was the biggest alt season we have ever seen. Shortly thereafter BTC started regaining on the alts.
Dianthus
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@Sawcruhteez,this has nothing to do with trading or bottoms. From 4k it is all manipulated and look when btc pumps. Always at the same time and when Asia is awake so my take is that it is just Tether pumps from Bitfinex to get some of their 850 mil back and also they have the most shorts. Bitmex longs and overal longs are more then the shorts so this all tells me that Tyler lost his bet but not that we will see 1-2k bc bottom is whaywhay not in. Total bs bc it goes to the strongest risistance known to btc (zone around 6-6.3k) if it was nothing and we do not see the big bull candles. Is just a slow walk...
would it be possible for you to lay out more btc / alt ratio scenarios according through time development? e.g. beginning of bull market, BTC dominance at ~XX%, alts at XX%. after that slow development/ratio remains/etc. BTC to XX%, alts XX%. then it could happen they develope like XX% and XX% or not. towards the end of a bull market BTC dominance increases/decreases further, while alts go XX%.
and so on. would make it a bit easier to understand.