Bitcoin is here to stay, that´s my believe. A huge global financial fatality is coming, the mother of the bubbles, the Bonds, is ready to burst. The 247 trillions global debt is insane, governments, banks, corporations, and individuals are borrowing at a rate that they may not be able to repay, or only pay the interest of these debts. Developing countries, which have been showing signs of growth, are now looking at increasing debt of $58.1 trillion for the first quarter of 2018 and questionable credit. These emerging markets hold $900 billion in U.S. bonds, which are set to mature in 202. As the value of the dollars increases, so do the chances of default on those debts.
Looks like in 2020 the world will face a huge resistance on politics, economics and social levels. That´s when everything could collapse badly and where Bitcoin could show up as a solution. If Bitcoin goes to $10 million per Bitcoin, it could provide the world community with a stable currency, replacing sovereign currencies, and acting as the reserve currency of the world incapable of inflation or deflation, in other words it would represent the ultimate “Store of Value”.
I believe that the next global crisis will resolved using any of this 5 ways:
1. A bitcoin standard 2. A gold standard. 3. A new commodity/currency basket. 4. Economic growth. 5. Default on sovereign debt.
The use of any of this solution invalidate the others 4. I don´t want to to make this post eternal, but from all the 5 ways to resolve the next collapse, Bitcoin represents the most logical solution. However you may consider that Bitcoin is very tiny market yet, but I believe that at least Bitcoin will be involved in the next era of the global economics.
So getting back to my chart, I didn´t use the log scale, so we can have a look at a most realistic view of the price during the last years. These are my main points to call new lows within this year:
- Many are calling the end of the bear season because there is an incoming Golden Cross in the daily chart, but what they ignore is that the biggest chart always are above the smaller. Institutional, professionals and whales don´t look at smaller timeframes, the weekly chart is the most used chart to identify trend changes (long term) and we are just about to enter another bear level territory.
- The 200 SMA has been acting as a fierce support from years ago, and just in December have been tested, so we may expect new test of this line.
- Session Volume Profile has the biggest supports starting at $1200.
- Network Value to Transactions clearly show us that Bitcoin is way overvalued.
I draw what I think is going to happen with a solid red line and a less likely scenario with dots lines. I truly believe that 3k is not the bottom. I may be wrong and this could take years until the price breaks down 3k but those are my scenarios. Either we break 3k within this year and we set the bottom or we play around between 3k and 6/7k for much longer. For now together with my TA, the Network Value to Transactions is warning us, so I won´t be entering long positions at the moment.
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nice chart, amazing how bullish people become after a 1000 dollar+ candle. I think your scenario is very likely to happen
Monikpw
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@VincentBoudewijn, absolutely, I think it will go to 6/6.5 first tho
Coinamic
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@VincentBoudewijn, yeah it’s nuts. It could keep going up and even test 6k, but honestly once the whales start dumping is going to be ugly, I better stay away or short
mikecryptonite
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@VincentBoudewijn, insane...once the bears are back many will blame manipulation again lol
cristinepr
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nice analysis
UnknownUnicorn3811160
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Agree...nice work.
Coinamic
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@AdamFleish, thank you
CryptoEngineering
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Let's see how it goes!
CryptoBoy_KSA
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I completely agree. Other than a global debt skyrocketing within the civilized world, for the next Crypto bull run we have to:
1. Test the previous 2015 ATH at ($1100)
2. Only when people lose all their money, their dreams and hopes crushed of becoming a crypto millionaire, and panic-sell, then and only then will we hit our true bottom which I predicted at around 730ish dollars around ~27.7% from previous 2015 ATH
Coinamic
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@CryptoBoy_KSA, well 1150 was the 2013 ATH, but yes this is far from being bottomed. The market could drive this to around 6k before the big drop, but I certainly doubt it. Most probably 5500 was the top for this stage and it will take a few months to try it again.